Ethiopia before the vote: Why the June 1 elections will test Abiy Ahmed’s rule
Ethiopia is entering the final stage before parliamentary and regional elections scheduled for June 1, 2026. Formally, this is another vote in one of Africa’s largest countries.
In reality, however, the elections will be an important political test for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his ruling Prosperity Party, which is widely expected to secure another dominant victory, News.Az reports.
The main intrigue of these elections is not so much who will win, but how convincingly the government can present the vote as proof of stability. Ethiopia is the second most populous country in Africa, yet recent years have been marked by severe internal shocks: the civil war in Tigray, armed confrontation in Amhara, instability in Oromia, pressure on the opposition, and persistent ethno-political tensions.
Abiy Ahmed was once seen as a reformist leader. He came to power in 2018 amid mass protests against the previous political system, launched reforms, released political prisoners, reached a peace agreement with Eritrea, and received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. But the following years dramatically changed his political image. Instead of a story of democratic renewal, Ethiopia faced war, internal fragmentation, and stronger centralized control.
In the 2021 elections, the Prosperity Party won a sweeping victory. Abiy Ahmed’s party secured an overwhelming majority in parliament, allowing the prime minister to consolidate power and present himself as the main architect of a new political system. The situation now appears similar on the surface: the ruling party is again considered the favorite, while the opposition remains fragmented, weakened, and limited in its ability to campaign.
Yet the political environment in 2026 is far more complicated. Voting will not take place across the entire country in a full format. Elections will not be held in the Tigray region due to unfavorable conditions. This is especially symbolic because Tigray was the center of the devastating 2020–2022 war between the federal government and forces of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. Although the 2022 peace agreement halted large-scale fighting, the political settlement there remains fragile.
In recent weeks, tensions around Tigray have again increased. The region’s main political force attempted to restore pre-war power structures, a move perceived as a challenge to the arrangements reached after the conflict. This created a new risk of confrontation and served as a reminder that formal peace does not yet mean lasting political stability.
The situation in Amhara is also deeply complex. This region, one of the most important in the country, has since 2023 become the scene of armed confrontation between federal forces and the Fano militia. Authorities will be unable to hold voting in at least part of Amhara’s electoral districts because of security concerns. For the country, this is a serious signal: even if the central government maintains control over the political system, it does not fully control the situation on the ground.
Oromia, Ethiopia’s largest region and Abiy Ahmed’s home region, also remains an area of chronic instability. Ethnic, political, and social tensions have long been intertwined with security issues there. For the prime minister, this is especially sensitive: if the government cannot ensure stability in the country’s largest region, its promises of national unity become less convincing.
Against this backdrop, the Prosperity Party is building its campaign around development, economic growth, infrastructure, food security, and the continuation of reforms. The government is trying to show that the country is emerging from a period of crises and returning to a modernization agenda. The economic argument is extremely important for Abiy Ahmed: if the political system is criticized for restricting freedoms, the government seeks to offset this with promises of growth and stability.
But this line has a weak point. For a significant part of society, security and political representation remain no less important than economic indicators. In a country with strong regional identities, elections cannot be perceived merely as a formal procedure. They must demonstrate that different groups feel included in a shared political process. This is precisely where Ethiopia faces serious problems today.
Opposition parties accuse the federal authorities of pressure, arrests of leaders, and the creation of legal barriers to political activity. The government rejects these accusations and says that all measures are taken in accordance with the law. However, the very existence of such accusations shows that trust between the authorities and the opposition remains low. Under these conditions, the elections may consolidate the ruling party’s dominance, but they will not necessarily reduce political tension.
Ethiopia’s internal problems are always regional in their consequences. The country is located in a strategically important part of the Horn of Africa, close to Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea, Djibouti, and the Red Sea. Any instability inside Ethiopia affects the security of the wider region. In addition, relations between Addis Ababa and Eritrea have again become more tense amid Ethiopia’s ambition to secure access to the sea. This adds a foreign-policy risk to the country’s internal political uncertainty.
That is why the June 1 elections matter not only for Ethiopia itself. They will be closely watched by neighboring countries, the African Union, Western partners, and international organizations. For Abiy Ahmed, the main task is to show that his government retains control, legitimacy, and the ability to govern the country after several years of conflict. For the opposition and critics of the authorities, the key question is different: can these elections genuinely reflect political competition if part of the country does not vote and opposition groups report pressure?
The Prosperity Party is very likely to maintain its dominant position. But victory at the ballot box will not automatically solve Ethiopia’s core problems. After the vote, the government will still face the same challenges: resolving the situation in Tigray, reducing tensions in Amhara, stabilizing Oromia, restoring trust in state institutions, and finding a balance between a strong central government and regional interests.
This is why the June 1 elections should be seen not as the end of Ethiopia’s political struggle, but as another stage in a much longer crisis of statehood. Abiy Ahmed will likely confirm his control over parliament. The much harder task will be to prove that the country is truly moving toward stability — and not simply passing through another election against the backdrop of unresolved conflicts.
By Nijat Babayev
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