Oil prices rise as OPEC+ pauses output hikes for early 2026
Oil prices edged higher on Monday after OPEC+ moved to suspend planned output increases in the first quarter of 2026, a decision aimed at preventing a potential supply glut. Gains were limited, however, by weak factory data out of Asia.
Brent crude rose 0.37% to $65.01, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 0.34% to $61.19 in early Asian trade, News.Az reports, citing Reuters.
The producer alliance confirmed it will raise output by 137,000 bpd in December, matching levels from October and November. After that, the group plans to pause increases through January, February, and March 2026, citing seasonal demand weakness.
Analysts say the move shows OPEC+ is acknowledging a looming supply surplus next year.
“Still plenty of uncertainty… especially around U.S. sanctions on Russian oil flows,” said ING’s Warren Patterson.
Russia remains a major wildcard, with new U.S. sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil and continued Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure.
A Ukrainian strike over the weekend hit Tuapse, a major Russian Black Sea oil port, sparking a fire and damaging a vessel.
“There is ample ground for caution,” said RBC’s Helima Croft, pointing to sanctions and expected demand softness.
Despite the OPEC+ move, demand worries linger. Asian factory activity weakened again in October as U.S. tariffs weighed on orders, underscoring a broader slowdown in the world’s largest oil-consuming region.
Brent & WTI both fell more than 2% in October
Forecasts remain steady as higher OPEC+ output + soft demand offset geopolitical risks
Market surplus estimates vary sharply — 190,000 bpd to 3 million bpd
U.S. output hit a record 13.8 million bpd in August, according to the EIA
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump denied considering military strikes inside Venezuela amid speculation of expanding counter-drug operations.
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