Possible U.S. attack on Iran: Scenario unveiled

A targeted U.S. strike on Iran aimed at weakening the country’s political and military leadership, rather than occupying territory, is reportedly being actively discussed within the American expert community.

The proposed scenario would focus on striking a limited number of high-value targets. These could include the residence of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, senior military and political leadership structures, selected nuclear facilities, missile infrastructure, and command-and-control centers, News.Az reports, citing Russian media.

The report suggests Washington could apply a strategy known as “escalation dominance,” previously demonstrated after the 2020 killing of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani. The concept is based on responding to an opponent’s actions with overwhelming force, making further escalation ineffective or too costly.

According to analysts cited in the report, the message Washington intends to send to Tehran is that the U.S. has the capability to strike key components of Iran’s state system, withstand a limited retaliation, and maintain control over escalation levels. The scenario is reportedly designed to ensure that any escalation cycle ends quickly, allowing the U.S. to maintain leverage without moving toward full-scale war.

Such an approach, according to the publication, could leave space for negotiations, but potentially under conditions more favorable to Washington, while significantly increasing the cost of non-compliance for Iran.

Tensions between the two countries have increased following the suppression of protests in Iran in December, which, according to official figures, resulted in around 3,000 deaths. In response, the United States increased its military presence in the Middle East.

Diplomatic contacts resumed on February 6 in Oman, where U.S. presidential envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held talks, the first since the 12-day conflict in June 2025. U.S. President Donald Trump has again urged Tehran to reach an agreement on abandoning nuclear weapons, warning of a strong military response if negotiations fail.

News.Az 

By Aysel Mammadzada