Preparing for Super El Niño: What to expect from this climate phenomenon
Recent international climate model updates suggest that a Super El Niño could form as early as 2026, heightening the risk of extreme weather events across many regions worldwide.
Unlike a typical El Niño, a Super El Niño involves a rise of more than 2 °C in the temperature of equatorial Pacific waters, News.Az reports, citing foreign media.
This pronounced warming disrupts atmospheric patterns, directly influencing global rainfall and temperature trends.
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Super El Niños are rare, occurring on average once every 10 to 15 years, and are considered among the planet’s most powerful climate events. When they develop, their impacts are usually prolonged and intense, affecting multiple continents simultaneously.
Experts point out that the current event may surpass the one recorded in 2015, which was previously considered the strongest in recent history. There are even projections indicating that this could be the most intense in the last 140 years.
The effects of Super El Niño are already beginning to be outlined by climate models. In the Americas, for example, the forecast indicates extreme contrasts between drought and excessive rain.
In northern Brazil and Central America, the trend is for severe droughts, which can directly affect agriculture and water supply. On the other hand, countries like Peru and Ecuador may face heavy rains and flooding.
Meanwhile, the southern United States and parts of South America are expected to experience more frequent heat waves. Thus, Super El Niño may intensify extreme weather events across the continent.
In addition to the Americas, Super El Niño is expected to strongly impact regions in Asia and Oceania. Countries like India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Australia face a high risk of drought, which may compromise agricultural production and generate food insecurity.
In the oceans, the changes are also significant. There is a forecast for an increase in the formation of cyclones and typhoons in the Pacific. In contrast, the Atlantic may see a reduction in hurricane activity.
These changes demonstrate how Super El Niño has the capacity to reorganize climate patterns on a global scale, directly affecting economies and populations.
Another critical point associated with Super El Niño is the so-called “staircase” effect on global warming. This phenomenon occurs when the heat generated by intense events is not fully dissipated before the next climate cycle.
With the increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the planet retains more heat. Thus, each new Super El Niño may further raise the global average temperature, creating a cycle of progressive warming.
Moreover, a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture. This increases the risk of intense storms and flooding in various regions, making the climate even more unpredictable.
Projections indicate that the peak of Super El Niño is expected to occur between late 2026 and early 2027. This period coincides with the greatest release of heat into the atmosphere, which may drive new temperature records.
Although 2024 has been considered the hottest year on record, the current scenario points to a possible surpassing of this milestone. This is because the combination of global warming and an intense Super El Niño may raise temperatures to unprecedented levels.
If the forecasts are confirmed, 2027 could go down in history as the hottest year ever recorded on the planet. In light of this, experts emphasize the importance of constant monitoring and preparation for extreme weather events.
With the possible arrival of a Super El Niño, the world may face a new configuration of climate risks. Prolonged droughts, floods, heat waves, and intense storms are expected to occur more frequently and intensely.
In light of this scenario, governments and productive sectors need to prepare to mitigate impacts. After all, Super El Niño is not just a climatic phenomenon, but an event with the potential to directly affect the economy, food security, and the lives of millions of people worldwide.
By Nijat Babayev
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