Razor-thin race will test Milei’s popularity in Argentina
Argentina’s firebrand president, Javier Milei, faces a key political test next month as a high-stakes local election in Buenos Aires province threatens to undermine his sweeping economic reform program.
Milei has brought triple-digit inflation down to a projected annual rate below 30% this year through an aggressive austerity plan. But those same spending cuts have triggered protests from retirees, teachers, and doctors, deepening political tensions ahead of the October midterms, which are crucial for his legislative agenda, News.Az reports, citing Reuters.
While Milei’s national outlook for October remains relatively strong, analysts warn that the September 7 Buenos Aires provincial election—in the political heartland of his center-left Peronist rivals—could dent investor confidence and signal trouble ahead. The province accounts for 40% of Argentina’s electorate.
“The only question mark is the province of Buenos Aires,” said Lucas Romero of consulting firm Synopsis. “Defeat in October would hinder his ability to assure the market that his economic changes can last years.”
Polls show a razor-thin race. A Trespuntozero survey put Milei’s La Libertad Avanza at 44%, slightly behind Peronist alliance Fuerza Patria, while Analogias had Fuerza Patria on 36.9% versus Milei’s 32.3%. Approval ratings for Milei have dipped in multiple polls—from 46% to 43% in D’Alessio IROL/Berensztein’s survey, with disapproval rising to 55%.
Provincial officials say the race will be decided district by district. “We want to show that the ‘chainsaw’—the symbol of Milei’s austerity measures—is not the solution,” said Buenos Aires Communications Minister Jessica Rey.
For Milei, the Buenos Aires result could shape the narrative heading into October. For Peronists, it’s a chance to blunt the president’s momentum—and perhaps stall his economic experiment before it gains irreversible traction.
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