Russia mobilizes "Karabakh" forces for Ukrainian frontline
On April 17, Dmitry Peskov, the Press Secretary for the President of Russia, confirmed reports that the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Karabakh had begun. These reports had initially appeared in Azerbaijani media.
Hikmet Hajiyev, an aide to the President of Azerbaijan who heads the foreign policy department of the state administration, noted that the decision to withdraw the Russian peacekeeping contingent from Azerbaijani territory was made by the top leadership of both countries.
Ukrainian political analyst Ruslan Bortnik, in an exclusive interview with News.Az, indicated that the situation in Karabakh has significantly changed following the one-day war in 2023. According to him, the tripartite agreement from 2020 among Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, which regulated the conditions for the deployment of Russian troops in the region, has effectively become obsolete.
The dissolution of the self-proclaimed "NKR" and the voluntary departure of the Armenian population have left little justification for the continued presence of Russian troops in Karabakh.
As a result, the reduction of the Russian military presence in Karabakh can be viewed as a way to exert pressure on Armenia's government, which Russia perceives as disloyal, thereby increasing its vulnerability to potential new confrontations with Azerbaijan and Turkey. Simultaneously, this allows Russia to redirect resources and bolster its positions on the Ukrainian front in anticipation of the expected summer offensive.
The complete restoration of Azerbaijani control over the region and the reduced role of Russia heighten the risk of a new Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, especially in light of border skirmishes and disputes over the "Zangezur Corridor." Moreover, the strengthening of Turkey's and Azerbaijan's positions in the region could pose new geopolitical challenges.
Russian expert Vladimir Bekish, in an interview with News.Az, commented on the potential redeployment of Russian peacekeepers from Karabakh to the Ukrainian front. He believes that such a move will not happen immediately and could only occur under certain circumstances.
"Russia currently has sufficient resources on the Ukrainian front, both in terms of personnel and weapons. In terms of human resources, there will be more than enough for a very long time. There are plenty of volunteers in Russia willing to participate in combat operations, especially for a reward," he noted.
Bekish also added, "If the West starts actively supplying Ukraine with military equipment, Russia will have to use all available resources to conduct combat operations."
The expert mentioned that in 2023, US military spending amounted to $905 billion, while Russian expenditures were $90 billion. He poses the question: "Why, with such figures, are there reports in Russia that America is depleting its reserves of weapons and ammunition to support Ukraine? What will happen if these expenses are fully directed towards arming Ukraine?"
Ukrainian military expert Mikhail Zhirokhov shared his thoughts on the future location of Russian peacekeeping forces after their departure from Azerbaijani Karabakh in an interview with News.Az. According to Zhirokhov, Russia plans to relocate part of its military infrastructure from Karabakh to the Ukrainian front, which could lead to an escalation of military actions in this region by spring.
The expert is confident that Russia will use its current operational reserves for an offensive, although the exact location and timing of the attack remain uncertain. Zhirokhov believes that Kharkiv, as a major city with potential for street fighting, is unlikely to be the primary target. It is more probable that there will be increased activity in Donbass, where active combat has been ongoing for a long time.
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