China and Taiwan: Are changes coming?
From April 7 to 12, Taiwan’s opposition leader Zheng Liwen will visit China at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping, Bloomberg reported.
On March 23, Zheng said she planned to travel to Beijing for talks with Xi. “If meeting with Xi contributes to peace in the Taiwan Strait, I would meet him even 100 times,” the head of the Kuomintang, Taiwan’s largest opposition party, told foreign journalists and diplomats.
Unlike the island’s current authorities, represented by the Democratic Progressive Party, Zheng recognizes that the only political basis for peaceful dialogue is the “1992 Consensus” — the acknowledgment that Taiwan is part of a broader Chinese nation and a rejection of declaring the island’s independence.
Earlier, Zheng had expressed her intention to meet the Chinese leader before her first official visit to the United States. These remarks drew criticism even within her own party, but she did not change her plans.
The Kuomintang is Taiwan’s main opposition party, and Zheng Liwen became its leader last year. Prior to 2005, she was an activist in the Democratic Progressive Party and supported Taiwanese nationalism. However, after recognizing the limitations of such positions, she shifted her approach and later took part in a historic meeting between Kuomintang leadership and former Chinese leader Hu Jintao.
Source: ynet
Zheng Liwen actively opposes the pro-American policies of the current authorities. This is particularly evident in disputes over the defense budget. When President Lai Ching-te requested $40 billion from parliament for defense spending, a coalition of the Kuomintang and the Taiwan People’s Party blocked the proposal, demanding a reduction to $12 billion. According to media reports, this move irritated Donald Trump, who stated that if Taiwan’s opposition does not care about the island’s security, the United States may also stop caring.
Washington has traditionally viewed “security” for Taiwan as arming the ruling authorities and maintaining its own presence in the region. For the United States, Taiwan serves as a strategic foothold in the event of serious tensions with mainland China. The island’s authorities had planned large-scale purchases of American weapons, but opposition actions have complicated these plans.
Although the United States does not have formal diplomatic relations with Taipei, it continues to supply weapons under the Taiwan Relations Act, which provides for arms sales for self-defense. The U.S. defense budget proposal for fiscal year 2026 includes increased assistance to the island. Moreover, The Wall Street Journal reported that the United States has developed a potential military plan for 2027 in the event of escalation between China and Taiwan.
Overall, Taiwan’s active militarization does not enhance the island’s security but instead escalates tensions. For every move by Taipei or statement from Washington, Beijing responds with corresponding actions. For instance, at the end of 2025, China conducted large-scale military exercises near Taiwan, described by the Chinese Foreign Ministry as a “resolute response to external forces attempting to use Taiwan to contain China, arm the island, and push the situation in the strait toward the dangerous brink of war.”
Nevertheless, in February 2026, The Wall Street Journal reported that Xi Jinping, following a series of major purges within the top military leadership, is adjusting China’s strategy toward Taiwan. Instead of direct military intervention, Beijing is emphasizing gradual pressure tactics — a strategy described as achieving objectives “without a single shot being fired,” aimed at undermining Taipei’s resilience.
In light of these developments, Zheng Liwen’s upcoming visit to Beijing can be considered highly significant.
Her election as leader of the Kuomintang in October 2025 was described by many analysts as a blow to U.S. interests. Notably, Xi Jinping congratulated her within an hour of the official announcement of the election results, expressing hope for cooperation in advancing development and promoting the reunification of Taiwan and China. This expectation was not accidental.
In her response letter, cited by media outlets, Zheng stated: “Based on the shared political foundation of supporting the 1992 Consensus and opposing Taiwan’s independence, the Kuomintang and the Communist Party of China have promoted peaceful cross-strait relations and achieved numerous historic successes.”
According to reports, 30–35 percent of Taiwan’s population supports independence, while 40–45 percent favors the “One China” policy, with the rest undecided.
Source: Reuters
Interestingly, it was the Kuomintang that proclaimed Taiwan’s separation in 1949. However, in the 1980s, the party began expanding contacts with Beijing and advocating rapprochement with mainland China. Therefore, Zheng Liwen’s rise to leadership — a politician with connections in the United States — could pose a challenge to pro-independence forces.
Thus, the Kuomintang leadership election last autumn was not merely an internal party event but one capable of reshaping the broader balance of interests and opportunities.
If current conditions persist, a meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping is expected to take place in May in Washington. Although Trump had been expected to visit Beijing in the spring, the outbreak of war in the Middle East has complicated the situation, making it less likely for the U.S. president to travel abroad.
In any case, a meeting between the leaders of the world’s two leading powers is expected.
The fact that the new leader of the Kuomintang openly supports the “One China” principle may strengthen Xi Jinping’s position in these negotiations.
Ultimately, much will depend on what agreements are reached between Xi Jinping and Zheng Liwen in Beijing in April.
By Tural Heybatov
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