Tesla Q1 deliveries are coming - Here’s what to expect
Tesla (TSLA) is expected to release its first-quarter electric vehicle (EV) delivery numbers before the market opens, positioning the company to reclaim its title as the world’s largest seller of fully battery electric vehicles (BEVs).
In premarket trading, Tesla shares dipped modestly amid broader market weakness, News.Az reports, citing IBD.
Analysts anticipate 365,645 deliveries for Q1 2026, up 8.6% from 336,681 units in Q1 2025, when Tesla was transitioning to the new Model Y. However, this figure would represent a 12.5% decline from 418,227 vehicles delivered in Q4 2025. FactSet’s consensus estimate is slightly higher, projecting 381,000 EV deliveries.
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If Tesla follows its recent pattern, the Q1 figures are expected around 9 a.m. ET.
Tesla BEV King Again?
Tesla deliveries should easily pass BYD (BYDDF) in terms of BEV sales, after its Chinese rival led for five quarters. BYD sold 700,463 EVs in Q1, but that includes plug-in hybrids. It sold just 310,389 BEVs, amid tumbling sales at home.
BYD is likely to reclaim the BEV pole position in the seasonally stronger Q2 as it rolls out new models with flash charging.
Q1 Delivery Estimates
The Tesla-compiled consensus expects Model Y and Model 3 deliveries will total 351,179 vehicles. Meanwhile, the remaining models — which include the Cybertruck and the soon-to-be discontinued Model S and Model X — should total 13,946 deliveries.
Tesla will also release first-quarter figures for energy storage deployed.
These latest sales figures come as Tesla shifts its attention away from auto sales and toward self-driving systems, robotaxis and eventually robots. However, the company still relies on car sales to generate the bulk of its revenue and profits. As a result, investors will be closely eyeing where the automaker's deliveries end up.
Tesla China, Europe
Industry groups in Europe and China have recently released Tesla sales data of their own regarding Tesla. In China, Tesla's wholesale sales in Q1 including exports totaled 213,398, up 23.5% vs. a year earlier, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). Tesla China's February retail sales rose 42% year over year, after an especially poor January.
Meanwhile, Tesla's European new vehicle registrations, a close approximation for sales, rose 12% in February to 17,664, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA). But China's BYD recorded 17,954 EV sales in Europe in February, compared to Tesla's 17,664, according to the ACEA data.
Vehicle registrations suggest strong European sales in March for Tesla.
While spiking oil prices are taking a toll on stock markets, they appear to have given a big boost to EV sales around the world. That tailwind should continue for at least the short term.
Still, Tesla has no new EVs on tap, aside from the no-steering-wheel Cybercab that will require true self-driving to hit the streets.
Tesla Stock
Tesla stock fell 2.4% before Thursday's open. Shares are up 5.4% so far this week, rebounding from six-month lows set on Monday. TSLA stock is currently on a six-week losing streak, according to MarketSurge.
Shares are about 25% off their all-time high of 498.83 from December. Tesla stock has languished since the start of the year, falling about 15%, even more than the broader market.
Tesla stock round-tripped the gains from its latest breakout in September.
Tesla stock has a consensus rating of hold with a mean price target of 410.63, which would imply about 8% gains from its current levels, according to FactSet.
By Nijat Babayev
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