Ukraine monitors Poland's divisive presidential run-off
Poland’s presidential race has never featured a first-round winner facing so many challenges — from a resurgent far right to the prominent role of Ukraine in the campaign.
The June 1 run-off between Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski of the ruling Civic Platform (PO) and Karol Nawrocki, backed by Law and Justice (PiS), will likely reshape not only Poland’s domestic political balance but also its approach to Ukraine. News.Az reports citing foreign media.
And the clash will be tight: in a first-round that saw a record 67.3% turnout, Trzaskowski secured 31.4% of the vote and Nawrocki 29.5%.
Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Poland emerged as one of Kyiv’s staunchest allies – sending weapons, sheltering millions of refugees, and rallying Western support. But over time, political tensions, economic fatigue, and disputes over grain imports and historical memory have strained the relationship.
"These elections are crucial to Ukraine because they will either end the electoral cycle in Poland or open a new one,” Ukrainian political analyst Yevhen Mahda told the Kyiv Independent. “And amid global turmoil, we need a stable, friendly Poland."
The first-round results have been described as a "yellow card" for the ruling coalition that has governed Poland since 2023 under Prime Minister Donald Tusk. If outgoing President Andrzej Duda is succeeded by Nawrocki, whom he endorsed, Civic Platform will face regular obstruction through presidential vetoes.
Although the Polish president holds limited executive power, he plays a key role in foreign affairs and serves as commander-in-chief of the armed forces. Polish presidents have historically been particularly active in shaping eastern policy.
"The past three years have shown that it is politicians who set the temperature of relations between our nations," said Zbigniew Parafianowicz, a journalist and author of "Poland at War," which examines Polish-Ukrainian policy at the outset of Russia’s invasion.
"Neither candidate will work wonders for Ukraine, but Kyiv has good reason to pay close attention."
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