US coffee prices to stay high despite Trump tariff reset
US coffee drinkers are unlikely to see relief at the checkout anytime soon, even after President Donald Trump rolled back import tariffs on coffee and other food items, industry experts say.
While Trump’s tariff reset last month removed duties on coffee imports — including beans from Brazil, the US’s largest supplier — higher prices are still working their way through supply chains, according to brokers, traders and analysts, News.Az reports, citing Reuters.
The main driver of elevated retail prices is not tariffs but last year’s global coffee shortage, which caused raw coffee bean prices to double in the 12 months to March. Analysts estimate it takes at least nine months for changes in raw bean prices to reach store shelves due to stockpiling, roasting timelines and quarterly price negotiations with retailers.
As a result, US consumers — the world’s largest coffee drinkers — are expected to face higher prices well into 2026, limiting the White House’s ability to ease food inflation ahead of the November midterm elections.
Trump rolled back “reciprocal” tariffs of 10% to 41% on more than 200 food items that cannot easily be produced domestically. He also exempted coffee from an additional 40% levy on Brazilian imports, which supply roughly one-third of US coffee beans.
Industry experts note that raw beans make up at least 40% of the cost of producing roasted coffee. Although global production is expected to move into surplus during the 2025/26 and 2026/27 seasons — which should eventually soften prices — the impact will be slow.
US roasters typically hold two to three months of bean inventories and require several more months for roasting, packaging and distribution. Many also renegotiate retail prices only once per quarter.
As a result, very little of the 18.8% rise in US retail coffee prices over the past year can be directly attributed to tariffs. Meanwhile, a nearly 35% surge in raw bean prices during the height of the tariff period has yet to fully reach consumers.
“Coffee prices rise more quickly than they fall,” said Steven Walter Thomas, CEO of US-based importer Lucatelli Coffee, noting that bean prices have dropped only modestly since tariffs were removed.
Some companies, including Folgers owner J.M. Smucker, have said they will pause further price hikes in the near term. Still, industry executives warn that additional increases in 2026 remain possible, especially among larger roasters.
For now, cheaper coffee remains out of reach — even without tariffs.
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