Iran is unlikely to pursue full escalation but may opt for a controlled expansion of the conflict, targeting energy infrastructure to shift it into the economic sphere. A full-scale invasion remains improbable given Iran’s capabilities and terrain. However, prolonged tensions risk destabilising the South Caucasus, potentially triggering security challenges, placing strain on infrastructure, and leading to refugee flows.

In recent years, amid deepening instability in the international system, intensified rivalry among major powers, and regional confrontations, domestic security has become one of the top priorities for states. In this environment, attempts at foreign influence are no longer limited to overt political and diplomatic pressure but are increasingly carried out through domestic political actors, financial mechanisms, and covert networks. The investigation conducted in Azerbaijan into criminal acts directed against state authority can be viewed as a concrete manifestation of this new threat model.

The S&P 500 has just completed a three-year streak of double-digit gains, prompting questions about whether 2026 could extend the rally. After three stellar years, Wall Street analysts generally expect positive returns next year, though forecasts vary widely on the extent of the gains.

Dogecoin has been struggling to break key resistance. This leaves investors uncertain about its short-term price moves. Meanwhile, PEPE is showing early signs of a rebound, but the market remains volatile.

Allianz reported a stronger-than-expected 13% rise in Q2 net profit, reaching €2.84 billion, surpassing analyst forecasts of €2.76 billion.