Eray Güçlüer: The U.S. and Russia have already agreed to divide Ukraine - INTERVIEW
Amid the ongoing geopolitical turbulence, Türkiye has positioned itself as a key player in regional stability, balancing its relations with both Russia and the West.
The latest round of diplomatic meetings, including discussions between Russian and U.S. delegations and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to Washington, has once again highlighted the complexities of the Ukraine conflict. In an exclusive interview with News.Az, Dr. Eray Güçlüer, President of the Center for Eurasian Strategic Studies of Türkiye (ASAM), provides an in-depth analysis of these developments. He sheds light on the significance of Türkiye’s role in the negotiations, the shifting stance of the United States toward Ukraine, and the broader implications of potential agreements between Moscow and Washington. Dr. Güçlüer also discusses the impact of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s diplomatic moves and whether Türkiye has the strategic influence to shape the course of events. As great power competition intensifies, will Ukraine’s fate be determined solely by Russia and the U.S., or does Türkiye have the leverage to push for a more balanced resolution? Dr. Güçlüer offers his expert insights into the evolving dynamics of this high-stakes conflict.
Photo: TASS
- What steps will be taken in light of the meeting between Russian and U.S. delegations and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to the United States?
- The primary topic of the meeting between the Russian and U.S. delegations was, naturally, Ukraine. The discussion focused on what kind of agreement could bring an end to the war in Ukraine. The fact that the negotiations were conducted at a low level indicates that the talks have entered a technical phase. It is also significant that these meetings took place in Türkiye, as President Erdoğan’s gesture of welcoming Zelensky with an umbrella during his visit carried an important political message: “Take Zelensky into account. Respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity.” Türkiye has the power to maintain this balance. Therefore, the fact that these meetings are being held in Türkiye suggests that peace negotiations could take place there.
Following this phase, there was little justification for President Zelensky’s visit to the U.S. Washington has already distanced itself from Zelensky and intends to dictate its next steps to him. Most likely, the U.S. will seek to have him sign an agreement that ensures American control over Ukraine’s natural resources. In essence, this indicates that Russia and the U.S. have reached an agreement to divide Ukraine. It is highly probable that, in exchange for securing Russia’s current territorial gains, Moscow will turn a blind eye to U.S. operations in Canada, Greenland, Panama, and Mexico. Additionally, an agreement enabling the U.S. to exploit Ukraine’s resources may also be signed.
However, this will not bring lasting peace, as opposition forces in Ukraine are now beginning to rally around Zelensky. This situation could escalate into a different type of confrontation or mark a new phase of the war, possibly leading to the adoption of irregular warfare tactics. However, Trump is believed to be largely indifferent to these matters. Ultimately, Zelensky has traveled to the U.S. to receive directives rather than weapons or financial aid.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan welcomes his Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelensky in Ankara, 18 February. Photo: Murat Kula/Turkish Presidential Press Office
- What are the details of President Erdoğan’s meetings with Russian and EU representatives? What messages did he convey?
- President Erdoğan’s invitation to Zelensky and the symbolic umbrella gesture were, in fact, a direct response to the U.S. and Russia’s attempts to reach an agreement without considering the interests of Ukraine and Türkiye. Under normal circumstances, European leaders would not have received Zelensky since he was primarily backed by Washington. However, they were now compelled to accept him. Shortly after, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov arrived in Türkiye.
All these developments highlight Türkiye’s crucial role in maintaining regional geopolitical balance. This war will eventually come to an end. However, it must not conclude with a settlement based on the division of Ukraine between the U.S. and Russia but rather with a just resolution that upholds Ukraine’s territorial integrity. This is precisely what Türkiye advocates. Otherwise, new conflicts will inevitably arise, as peace agreements based on colonial-style arrangements tend to lead to further confrontations.
- Does Türkiye have the power to influence this process?
- Yes, it does. Türkiye wields significant military and political influence. Despite pressure from the U.S. and Europe, Türkiye has consistently enforced the Montreux Convention, preventing Western powers from gaining access to the Caspian Sea. This firm stance is also of great importance to Russia. On the other hand, by supplying Ukraine with combat drones, Türkiye has created a strategic balance against Russia.
As a result, Türkiye has become a key player influencing both sides, disrupting the U.S. and Russia’s plans to implement their agreement without taking other actors into account. Consequently, both nations will have to reassess their strategies. Against this backdrop, Zelensky has once again traveled to the U.S. While he is unlikely to secure anything concrete, he will at least manage to keep the issue on the agenda. The U.S. may soften its agreement with Russia and draft a new settlement aligned with the balanced approach Türkiye is advocating.
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