First invasion of Russian territory since World War II!

By Tural Tagiyev

In an unprecedented move, the Ukrainian army has launched a surprise attack on Russia's Kursk region, capturing the world's attention. This offensive marks the first occupation of Russian territory since World War II, setting a historical precedent and signaling a dramatic shift in the ongoing conflict. Bloomberg reported that this unexpected maneuver caught the Russians off guard, leading to significant geopolitical and economic ramifications.

The Kursk battles have drawn attention not only for their historical significance but also for their impact on the energy market. In the wake of the attack, gas prices in Europe surged by 5.8%, as evidenced by trading data from the ICE exchange. According to the trading data, futures for gas deliveries in September rose from $410 to $438 per thousand cubic meters. This increase is linked to the attack on the Sudzhansky district in the Kursk region, where the Sudzha gas metering station, with a capacity of 42 million cubic meters per day, is located.

Earlier, the market price of gas in Europe exceeded $435 per cubic meter for the first time since December 2023.

Political analyst Ilgar Velizade, commenting on the situation for News.Az , stated that in the current tense phase of the war, such risky and large-scale attacks are unlikely to be explained by economic interests. Specifically, targeting a strategic gas pipeline cannot be considered the main goal of the Kursk battles.
"If they wanted to, they could have disrupted gas supplies within Ukraine in various ways. Incidentally, it was found that the Sudzha gas metering station was not damaged. Currently, the gas pipelines continue to operate, and there are no serious problems in this direction. Alongside the gas factor, other sources claim that the main goal of the attacking soldiers was to capture the Kursk nuclear power plant (NPP). However, there are many disputes regarding this claim as well. Ukraine's primary objective is not to achieve peak gas prices in Europe or control any NPP, but to shift the war onto Russian territory. One of the strategic goals is also to force the Russians to redeploy their reserve forces and some brigades involved in the fighting to the Kursk direction, where tension is currently high."

According to the political scientist, Russia may transfer a significant amount of equipment to its territories from the Ukrainian direction, which could weaken the fortified positions of the Russians in Ukraine.

Ilgar Velizade also does not believe that Europe will exert pressure on Ukraine to dissuade it from the Kursk battles amid rising gas prices.

"European officials do not oppose these operations. Of course, they would not want all the fighting to continue deep within Ukraine under the previous standard rules. Europe is satisfied with the change in the nature of the war in the border Kursk direction. However, the situation could change significantly. For now, we see that Russia is responding to this unexpected seizure with measures to prevent attacks and localize operations. If the response measures are harsher, then the countries of the European Union and the West in general may change their attitude towards what is happening. All this is speculation.

Currently, the situation remains tense, and, as strange as it may sound, the Russian side is defending in this direction and is not resorting to radical measures. These events can only have indirect effects on the Kursk gas market or the energy market as a whole. Incidentally, Naftogaz representatives stated that they are continuing negotiations with Azerbaijan. The goal is to supply Azerbaijani gas to Europe through pipelines passing through Russia and Ukraine. This indicates that neither Russia, nor Ukraine, nor Europe are interested in creating a gas crisis in the region or stopping the operation of the pipelines."

News.Az