How will Russia respond to Ukraine’s missile strikes? - Expert Opinions
By Faiq Mahmudov
Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued a stern warning to NATO leaders, stating that if the alliance allows Ukraine to use long-range Western missiles to target deep inside Russia, it would be considered an act of war.
“ This would mean NATO countries—both the United States and European nations—are at war with Russia . If that happens, given the change in the nature of the conflict, we will respond accordingly to the threats posed to us,” Putin said.
In an interview with News.Az, Russian political analyst Sergey Markov explained that Putin’s statement is aimed at countering the West’s strategy of gradual escalation: “The West has been escalating step by step, pushing the boundaries further and further. Now, the next step is using long-range missiles against Russia. While these missiles may not reach Moscow yet, it’s only a matter of time before they do. This is exactly what [Ukrainian President] Zelensky is pushing for. He claims Russia has no red lines left, which gives the West the green light to escalate even more.”
Markov stressed that this fits into the West’s broader strategy of escalation, but unlike the West, Russia doesn’t do small steps. “Russia responds with major moves. Putin has now signaled that these significant steps will be taken. If British missiles are used to strike deeper into Russian territory, Russia may declare war on the UK. That’s the most probable outcome,” he said.
Markov also pointed out that long-range missiles need precise guidance, which Ukraine cannot provide alone. “Ukraine lacks the satellite networks necessary for guiding these missiles. That means guidance will come from NATO satellites—whether from the US, the UK, or other member states,” he added.
The expert further noted that, while the US and Russia haven’t formally declared a state of war, leaving room for some de-escalation, Britain could be a different story. He cited reports from Russia’s FSB indicating that British diplomatic staff in Russia were engaged in intelligence operations. “There’s already talk of expelling six diplomats, but it won’t stop there. We could be looking at the complete severance or suspension of diplomatic relations with the UK, which would signal that Russia is treating this situation as war.”
Igor Korotchenko, Director General of the Caspian Institute for Strategic Studies, also shared his insights with News.Az . According to him, the decision to use long-range American missiles against Russian targets has already been made. “The next step is to justify this decision through propaganda and media coverage, then implement it on the ground. At first, the strikes will be limited, but they will increase over time,” Korotchenko said.
He also highlighted that NATO is carefully trying to avoid a direct military confrontation with Russia. “By using Ukraine as a proxy, NATO has been waging a war against Russia for over two years, albeit in a hybrid form. Russia’s response will likely involve massive strikes on Ukraine’s energy and transport infrastructure. If you think of Zelensky’s regime as a machine that continuously produces threats, all Russia needs to do is unplug it. We will follow NATO’s example from the war in Yugoslavia in 1999 .”
Korotchenko went on to say that Russia would likely destroy Ukraine’s entire energy infrastructure. “This will lead to chaos in the Ukrainian army’s rear and cripple the country’s military and state governance. Zelensky won’t have time to plan missile strikes on Russia because his government will be too disorganized to function. I don’t believe Russia will get dragged into a direct conflict with NATO, but we will ‘pull the plug’ on Ukraine’s military resistance. That’s where things are heading. This is the only sensible solution to prevent World War III.”
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