Kohán Mátyás: "If Trump and Putin reach a deal, Hungary will be the only EU state trusted by both" – INTERVIEW
By Asif Aydinly
News.az presents an exclusive interview with Kohán Mátyás, Deputy Editor at Mandiner.hu and a prominent Hungarian expert.
-Budapest lifted its objections to the extension of EU sanctions against Russia, which were due to expire in January this year, following a phone conversation between Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. This was reported by Politico, citing sources. How would you comment on this?
- In this context, it is essential to understand the foundations of Hungary’s policy toward the conflict in Ukraine. Hungary does not pursue a pro-Russian policy, but rather a pro-Hungarian and pro-European one. Its perception of what constitutes Europe’s and the West’s best interests in this conflict diverges from both the position of most EU member states and the view of the Biden administration. Hungary has consistently regarded a significant portion of the anti-Russian sanctions as harmful to Europe and has also opposed the European countries’ refusal to engage in serious negotiations with Russia on the key geopolitical causes of the current military confrontation.
Accordingly, Hungary has sought to balance two strategic objectives: to pursue what it considers a rational policy toward the war, while remaining loyal to its allies. Hungary’s actual policy is the outcome of this balancing act. While it opposes the sanctions policy, considering it ineffective, it does not block sanctions—except for those that pose a direct threat to the country’s vital national interests, particularly in the energy sector. Hungary has blocked such sanctions in the past and will continue to do so in the future.
Source:Euronews
The change of administration in the United States this January altered Budapest’s strategic calculus. Currently, the Hungarian and American assessments of Western interests are aligned: the top priority is achieving a swift ceasefire, resolving the conflict through negotiations, and normalizing relations between the West and Russia. At present, the U.S. is using sanctions not to achieve Russia’s military defeat, but to encourage Moscow to enter into serious talks. While the sanctions remain in place, the paradigm behind their use has shifted: the aim is no longer to force Russia into surrender but to initiate dialogue. Hungary supports this approach and therefore agreed to the extension of sanctions—excluding those that contradict its national interests—in response to a request from its American ally.
-How likely is it that Budapest is using its position as a tool to pursue its own political or economic goals within the EU?
-It is highly likely that the Hungarian government has, at times, considered using its veto power tactically in EU decisions related to Ukraine—particularly given that Hungary’s lifting of its veto has repeatedly coincided with the unfreezing of EU financial assistance. However, it is important to underline that this is merely a tactical element of Hungary’s political maneuvering, not the driving force of its broader strategy.
If Hungary were solely guided by its political and economic interests within the EU, it would have long since aligned itself with the European mainstream. It is worth noting that Hungary’s stance on the war is one of the main reasons for the financial pressure it faces from EU institutions.
Source: Financial Times
- To what extent does Hungary’s position on Ukraine differ from the EU’s official line, and could this lead to increased divisions within the Union? What consequences might there be for Hungary?
- As noted earlier, Hungary’s position on Ukraine significantly differs from that of most EU member states. EU leaders claim this reinforces perceptions of internal division and weakens the Union—but this view does not hold up. The world can clearly see that 25 out of 27 EU countries, including the wealthiest and most influential in Western Europe, support the EU’s official policy. If, despite such broad support, that policy continues to demonstrate weakness and yield no tangible results, the responsibility lies not with Hungary and one other country, but with the overwhelming majority of EU members that persist in following a flawed course.
The consequences for Hungary are already apparent: increased isolation within the EU and reluctance among other member states to support Hungary on financial matters. Brussels has frozen financial assistance to Hungary for political reasons, despite the absence of any legal justification. This is the price Hungary is paying for pursuing what it considers the correct policy—including with regard to the war.
Source: Euractiv
- How likely is it that Orbán’s support for Donald Trump’s position on peace negotiations with Russia will affect Hungary’s relations with Brussels and other EU countries?
- This question doesn’t require complex analysis—the processes are already underway. After Trump’s return to the White House and the subsequent radical shift in U.S. policy on the conflict in Ukraine, the European mainstream not only refused to revise its own approach but began accusing the new American president of acting in Vladimir Putin’s interests. Simultaneously, the Hungarian prime minister was portrayed as a dual agent of both Trump and Putin.
Naturally, this turn of events will deepen Hungary’s isolation within the EU, but it will not alter the reality on the battlefield. If Trump and Putin reach an agreement on the future of Ukraine and U.S.–Russia relations, Hungary will be the only EU country that has managed to maintain constructive relations with both the Trump administration and Moscow. In the end, Budapest will be able to leverage these connections in the interest of the entire European Union—and its allies will fully understand this.
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