US plans to punish China for supporting Russia - Expert Opinions
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A new controversy is unfolding between the world’s major powers. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently warned China of “significant consequences” should it provide material support to Russia in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This warning was delivered on Monday during a virtual meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng .
To shed light on the potential ramifications of such “consequences,”News.az spoke with Stanislav Pritchin, a Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) of the Russian Academy of Sciences .
According to Mr. Pritchin, Washington’s efforts to pressure Beijing are not solely motivated by the so-called “Russian question.” Instead, the United States is chiefly defending its own economic interests.
“The U.S. is primarily looking out for its domestic producers,” Mr. Pritchin explains. “China has enormous economic potential, allowing it to engage in certain practices—such as dumping on the U.S. market, using exchange-rate policies, and leveraging state support—that create a trade imbalance unfavorable to the United States, which naturally finds this unacceptable.”
Mr. Pritchin believes that the previous and incoming U.S. administrations will continue to emphasize this issue, particularly since former President Donald Trump , known for his economic nationalism, consistently seeks to safeguard American businesses.
“Any mechanism he perceives as hindering America’s economic potential will be deemed negative and unwarranted, requiring revision,” he says.
No financial aid from China to Russia
Mr. Pritchin also emphasizes that, contrary to popular belief, China is not providing Russia with direct financial assistance:
“While Russia is among China’s top five trading partners, and remains crucial to China’s energy balance as well as a market for Chinese goods, this relationship is based on trade, not financial aid.”
Yet, the partnership has become more nuanced given that many international banks aim to limit or avoid direct transactions with Russia.
“There are various mechanisms and tools that help circumvent sanctions, and the U.S. does not fully control these processes. Often, specific banks are created to trade with Russia and bypass sanctions,” Mr. Pritchin adds.
Potential blowback for the U.S.
As for the potential impact of a U.S. crackdown on China, Mr. Pritchin suggests it might be counterproductive:
“Sanctions against China could seriously harm American companies, many of which have manufacturing operations in China. Imposing additional sanctions would complicate the business landscape for U.S. companies. Hence, Washington will likely target sectors where it has robust domestic production capabilities.”
Mr. Pritchin also observes that Beijing is gradually strengthening its ability to respond to U.S. pressure.
“Although China does not want to confront the United States directly—since it could harm its own economy—it is preparing to boost its independence,” he says.
In particular, he explains, China has diversified its foreign trade significantly:
“If U.S.–China relations deteriorate, China’s diversified trade network will give it the flexibility to adapt, even though the U.S. remains one of its largest trading partners.”
New treasury secretary, same pressure
News.az also spoke with Daria Grevtsova, a prominent Russian political analyst , who believes the conversation between Ms. Yellen and Vice Premier He is unlikely to yield major developments. Ms. Grevtsova points out that Secretary Yellen is set to leave her position on January 20.
“A new Treasury Secretary, with a different perspective and policy approach, will replace her. Nevertheless, pressure on China will persist under the Trump administration, though it will not be directly tied to Russia.”
According to Ms. Grevtsova, President Trump aims to weaken Sino-Russian ties and encourage China to shift closer to the United States—though these efforts may inadvertently push Russia further into China’s sphere of influence, thereby undermining the credibility of any accusations levied against China over its support for Russia.
“Such accusations have been made several times,” Ms. Grevtsova recalls, “yet they did not lead to any tangible outcomes.”
Protecting american producers
Ms. Grevtsova adds that President Trump’s main priority is to protect U.S. producers from Chinese competition.
“China’s economic growth has been far swifter than that of the United States. The Chinese model appears more effective, which irritates Americans, who are used to occupying global leadership positions. Weakening China is, therefore, one of Trump’s key objectives.”
Mr. Trump, she notes, will seek to level the playing field, making China’s market more transparent and open to American manufacturers, thereby ensuring fairer competition.
“Currently, China restricts access to U.S. goods in ways that have proven beneficial for Chinese economic growth, but the U.S. sees this as unfair. Washington will push for greater market access and more equitable conditions for American products.”
Cyber struggles and accusations
Regarding allegations of cybercrimes, Ms. Grevtsova suggests attacks on systems involved in sanction enforcement are often retaliatory strikes against perceived injustices. She notes that such operations can be successful, even if no party openly admits responsibility.
“In cyberspace, the players with the most formidable capabilities typically prevail,” she says. “Accusations against China often reflect the U.S. facing challenges there—challenges posed by foreign hackers who may be more skilled than their American counterparts.”
This environment, Ms. Grevtsova concludes, compels U.S. authorities to make vocal accusations, even without concrete evidence.
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