What Armenia faces if it leaves the CSTO - Expert Opinions
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Armenia's unsettled relationship with the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) continues to stir controversy. The country has failed to pay its contributions to the organization for two consecutive years, with the debt for 2024 looming as the deadline approaches at the end of 2025. This has prompted Deputy Head of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Alexander Pankin to hint at potential actions against Armenia. Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov emphasized that Armenia has not submitted any formal documents regarding its withdrawal from the CSTO, despite Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's recent claims that the country considers itself outside the alliance.
News.az reached out to political analysts from Russia and Azerbaijan to explore the implications of Armenia’s strained ties with the CSTO.
Russian political analyst Oleg Kuznetsov told News.az that Armenia is the weakest and most insignificant member of the CSTO, whose opinion holds little weight within the organization: “Suffice it to say that during all maneuvers or semi-combat operations involving the united armed forces of this organization, for example, in Kazakhstan the year before last, during an attempted coup d'état, Armenia contributed only one special forces company, while other member states deployed divisions, brigades, and battalions. In this regard, Armenia’s combat capability and its overall role within the CSTO structure are insignificant from both a military-technical and military-political perspective.
The Armenian authorities have adopted a peculiar stance by refraining from actively supporting the principles of collective security that underpin their sovereignty. Instead, we have observed Armenia attempting to align with other nations to acquire weapons and secure their patronage. Notably, this includes countries like France and India, where the Armenian diaspora wields considerable influence.
However, it must be noted that the ongoing developments in Syria have dealt a serious blow to official Yerevan and the Armenian armed forces."
Russian journalist and public-political figure Maxim Shevchenko, in an interview with News.az, stated that Armenia's presence in the CSTO is of no value to the organization: "If Armenia leaves, the CSTO will only improve. Armenia is irrelevant here or there. That’s why I believe Armenia should not be a member of the CSTO. The sooner it leaves, the better it will be for the CSTO. Let Iran or someone else deal with Armenia."
Commenting on the possibility of Armenia seeking a new "defense umbrella" if expelled from the CSTO, Shevchenko said: "The fact is that Armenia borders a NATO member state — Türkiye. Türkiye has the second-largest military within NATO. So what does this mean? Will Armenia align itself with Türkiye? Will it come under Türkiye’s protection? I don’t rule out such a possibility. But would Armenia even want to go under Türkiye’s umbrella? I think the idea of Armenia joining NATO is purely fantastical."
Baku-based political analyst Ilgar Valizade emphasized that for Armenia to seek a new "defense umbrella," it must first officially declare its withdrawal from the CSTO: "This will require a specific procedure. Generally, after Armenia leaves the CSTO, theoretically or technically, it could turn to NATO. However, there is another nuance to consider. Armenia is a member of the EAEU, an integration organization that includes Russia. It is unlikely that NATO would accept Armenia, given the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by many NATO member states. The confrontational relationship between NATO and Russia makes it improbable for NATO to welcome a country that is part of an integration association with Russia.
On the other hand, there are broader realities, which are likely even more significant. Türkiye is unlikely to support Armenia’s NATO membership. Armenia is not Sweden or Finland; it cannot expect to join NATO without fully resolving issues in the South Caucasus, including its relations with Azerbaijan. Even then, Türkiye would likely oppose having a pro-French country, with a history of hostility toward itself, as a NATO member."
Political analyst Tural Ismayilov stated that the process of Armenia's expulsion from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is currently underway: “Imperialist circles supporting the Armenian government and using it as a platform to foster hatred against Russia in the region are deepening the divide between the Pashinyan administration and the CSTO.”
He further noted: "We must recognize that the CSTO also has certain expectations from Armenia. Despite Armenia's anti-CSTO rhetoric, it remains incapable of leaving the organization as a state. There are several reasons for this. While Nikol Pashinyan promotes anti-Russian and anti-CSTO sentiments as a key narrative within Armenia's public political discourse, the reality is that Armenia understands its fatal economic dependence on Russia. This dependence demonstrates that Armenia is not an independent state, as it cannot exit the CSTO ranks.
No matter how much Armenia campaigns against the CSTO, in practice, we see a clear reluctance and fear to leave the organization. Therefore, any serious rapprochement between Armenia and NATO is not a viable topic of discussion. Europe may arm Armenia and involve it in provocations, but in the end, Armenia will not be integrated into NATO. "
P.S. Armenia's departure from the CSTO could have serious implications for its security and geopolitical standing. The CSTO provides collective defense guarantees, which are particularly critical for Armenia, given its unresolved conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. Exiting the alliance would mean losing this safety net, leaving Armenia more exposed in a region marked by volatility and competing interests from powerful neighbors such as Russia, Türkiye, and Iran.
The economic consequences of leaving the CSTO would also be significant. Armenia's economy is deeply intertwined with Russia and other CSTO member states, particularly through the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Breaking ties with the CSTO could damage Armenia's economic relationship with Russia, its largest trading partner, and energy supplier. This could lead to increased financial difficulties as Armenia seeks new trade partners while potentially facing retaliatory economic measures from Moscow.
Seeking alternative alliances, such as with NATO or Western powers, may seem like an attractive option for Armenia. However, this path is fraught with challenges. Armenia's close economic and political ties with Russia make it an unlikely candidate for NATO membership, especially given the alliance's current strained relations with Moscow. Additionally, Türkiye, a key NATO member, is unlikely to support Armenia’s membership without resolving long-standing historical and territorial disputes. These obstacles make Armenia’s shift toward Western alliances uncertain at best.
Domestically, leaving the CSTO could create political instability. Armenia's decision to distance itself from Russia and the CSTO has already sparked debates within the country, with pro-Russian factions voicing opposition. A formal withdrawal could further polarize Armenian society, leading to protests and a deeper divide between the government and its critics. Without the CSTO, Armenia would also need to seek new sources of military support. While countries such as France or India might provide limited aid, these relationships are unlikely to match the level of military integration and support offered by the CSTO. This would leave Armenia in a vulnerable position, both militarily and strategically.
Ultimately, Armenia faces a complex and risky decision. While dissatisfaction with the CSTO and a desire to diversify alliances are understandable, the potential costs of leaving the alliance could outweigh the benefits. Armenia's security, economic stability, and geopolitical position could all be significantly weakened, leaving the country to navigate an increasingly uncertain future.
News.az reached out to political analysts from Russia and Azerbaijan to explore the implications of Armenia’s strained ties with the CSTO.
Russian political analyst Oleg Kuznetsov told News.az that Armenia is the weakest and most insignificant member of the CSTO, whose opinion holds little weight within the organization: “Suffice it to say that during all maneuvers or semi-combat operations involving the united armed forces of this organization, for example, in Kazakhstan the year before last, during an attempted coup d'état, Armenia contributed only one special forces company, while other member states deployed divisions, brigades, and battalions. In this regard, Armenia’s combat capability and its overall role within the CSTO structure are insignificant from both a military-technical and military-political perspective.
The Armenian authorities have adopted a peculiar stance by refraining from actively supporting the principles of collective security that underpin their sovereignty. Instead, we have observed Armenia attempting to align with other nations to acquire weapons and secure their patronage. Notably, this includes countries like France and India, where the Armenian diaspora wields considerable influence.
However, it must be noted that the ongoing developments in Syria have dealt a serious blow to official Yerevan and the Armenian armed forces."
Russian journalist and public-political figure Maxim Shevchenko, in an interview with News.az, stated that Armenia's presence in the CSTO is of no value to the organization: "If Armenia leaves, the CSTO will only improve. Armenia is irrelevant here or there. That’s why I believe Armenia should not be a member of the CSTO. The sooner it leaves, the better it will be for the CSTO. Let Iran or someone else deal with Armenia."
Commenting on the possibility of Armenia seeking a new "defense umbrella" if expelled from the CSTO, Shevchenko said: "The fact is that Armenia borders a NATO member state — Türkiye. Türkiye has the second-largest military within NATO. So what does this mean? Will Armenia align itself with Türkiye? Will it come under Türkiye’s protection? I don’t rule out such a possibility. But would Armenia even want to go under Türkiye’s umbrella? I think the idea of Armenia joining NATO is purely fantastical."
Baku-based political analyst Ilgar Valizade emphasized that for Armenia to seek a new "defense umbrella," it must first officially declare its withdrawal from the CSTO: "This will require a specific procedure. Generally, after Armenia leaves the CSTO, theoretically or technically, it could turn to NATO. However, there is another nuance to consider. Armenia is a member of the EAEU, an integration organization that includes Russia. It is unlikely that NATO would accept Armenia, given the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by many NATO member states. The confrontational relationship between NATO and Russia makes it improbable for NATO to welcome a country that is part of an integration association with Russia.
On the other hand, there are broader realities, which are likely even more significant. Türkiye is unlikely to support Armenia’s NATO membership. Armenia is not Sweden or Finland; it cannot expect to join NATO without fully resolving issues in the South Caucasus, including its relations with Azerbaijan. Even then, Türkiye would likely oppose having a pro-French country, with a history of hostility toward itself, as a NATO member."
Political analyst Tural Ismayilov stated that the process of Armenia's expulsion from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is currently underway: “Imperialist circles supporting the Armenian government and using it as a platform to foster hatred against Russia in the region are deepening the divide between the Pashinyan administration and the CSTO.”
He further noted: "We must recognize that the CSTO also has certain expectations from Armenia. Despite Armenia's anti-CSTO rhetoric, it remains incapable of leaving the organization as a state. There are several reasons for this. While Nikol Pashinyan promotes anti-Russian and anti-CSTO sentiments as a key narrative within Armenia's public political discourse, the reality is that Armenia understands its fatal economic dependence on Russia. This dependence demonstrates that Armenia is not an independent state, as it cannot exit the CSTO ranks.
No matter how much Armenia campaigns against the CSTO, in practice, we see a clear reluctance and fear to leave the organization. Therefore, any serious rapprochement between Armenia and NATO is not a viable topic of discussion. Europe may arm Armenia and involve it in provocations, but in the end, Armenia will not be integrated into NATO. "
P.S. Armenia's departure from the CSTO could have serious implications for its security and geopolitical standing. The CSTO provides collective defense guarantees, which are particularly critical for Armenia, given its unresolved conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. Exiting the alliance would mean losing this safety net, leaving Armenia more exposed in a region marked by volatility and competing interests from powerful neighbors such as Russia, Türkiye, and Iran.
The economic consequences of leaving the CSTO would also be significant. Armenia's economy is deeply intertwined with Russia and other CSTO member states, particularly through the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Breaking ties with the CSTO could damage Armenia's economic relationship with Russia, its largest trading partner, and energy supplier. This could lead to increased financial difficulties as Armenia seeks new trade partners while potentially facing retaliatory economic measures from Moscow.
Seeking alternative alliances, such as with NATO or Western powers, may seem like an attractive option for Armenia. However, this path is fraught with challenges. Armenia's close economic and political ties with Russia make it an unlikely candidate for NATO membership, especially given the alliance's current strained relations with Moscow. Additionally, Türkiye, a key NATO member, is unlikely to support Armenia’s membership without resolving long-standing historical and territorial disputes. These obstacles make Armenia’s shift toward Western alliances uncertain at best.
Domestically, leaving the CSTO could create political instability. Armenia's decision to distance itself from Russia and the CSTO has already sparked debates within the country, with pro-Russian factions voicing opposition. A formal withdrawal could further polarize Armenian society, leading to protests and a deeper divide between the government and its critics. Without the CSTO, Armenia would also need to seek new sources of military support. While countries such as France or India might provide limited aid, these relationships are unlikely to match the level of military integration and support offered by the CSTO. This would leave Armenia in a vulnerable position, both militarily and strategically.
Ultimately, Armenia faces a complex and risky decision. While dissatisfaction with the CSTO and a desire to diversify alliances are understandable, the potential costs of leaving the alliance could outweigh the benefits. Armenia's security, economic stability, and geopolitical position could all be significantly weakened, leaving the country to navigate an increasingly uncertain future.
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