HAL shares slide after Tejas crash at Dubai Air Show
Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) shares tumbled sharply on Monday after a Tejas fighter jet crashed during an aerobatic display at the Dubai Air Show 2025. The stock fell over 8% at the opening on the BSE to ₹4,205.25, while on the NSE it slipped more than 4% to ₹4,405.
The aircraft, manufactured by HAL for the Indian Air Force, went down during a low-altitude maneuver, killing pilot Wing Commander Namansh Syal. The IAF has ordered a Court of Inquiry to determine the cause of the accident, News.Az reports, citing foreign media.
Despite the tragic incident, analysts say the crash does not signal deeper structural issues within the Tejas programme. However, they expect short-term volatility due to reputational concerns and the stock’s rich valuations.
According to Harshal Dasani of INVasset PMS, the market had priced HAL for “flawless execution.” With expectations already running high and the company trading at elevated multiples, investors are reassessing risk-reward even though the long-term outlook for HAL and India’s defense sector remains strong.
The government also clarified that initial concerns about oil leakage were unrelated to the crash. But the scrutiny comes at a time when HAL is managing one of its largest order books ever, including a massive contract for 97 Tejas units and strong demand for helicopters, engines, and other platforms.
Analysts note that even the world’s most advanced fighter jets, including the F-35, have experienced crashes during tests and demonstration flights. HAL’s accident rate remains among the lowest globally for modern fighters, and experts view the Dubai crash as within the expected risk spectrum for high-performance military aviation.
Choice Broking said the incident might temporarily dampen export sentiment but is unlikely to derail HAL’s core momentum. The brokerage expects domestic deliveries, especially the Tejas Mk1A production ramp-up, to remain the company’s primary growth driver in the near term. By the time export negotiations gain scale, analysts believe sentiment will normalise.
HAL’s long-term fundamentals remain strong. The company has an order backlog worth more than 7.1 times its FY25 revenue, giving it a multi-year revenue pipeline and continued strategic significance in India’s defense modernisation drive.
As for investors, Choice Broking continues to maintain a Buy rating on HAL with a target price of ₹5,570, valuing the company at 35x its FY27/28 projected earnings. The stock has delivered extraordinary long-term gains — rising 1,026% over the past five years — although it has slipped 7% in the past month and 10% over the last six months.
As of 9:30 a.m. on Monday, HAL shares were trading 2.81% lower at ₹
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