IATA warns jet fuel recovery will take months after war

The strategic waterway, essential for global oil shipments, has been largely paralysed for weeks due to the Middle East war, causing crude and related product prices to soar, News.Az reports, citing AFP.

IATA Director General Willie Walsh told journalists in Singapore that while the exact timeline is uncertain, recovery “is not going to happen quickly.”

He explained that disruptions to refining capacity in the Middle East mean it will take months to restore adequate fuel supply. “I don’t think it’s going to happen in weeks,” Walsh emphasized.

Oil prices fell on Wednesday after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, under which Tehran temporarily reopened the Strait of Hormuz. The ceasefire came just an hour before US President Donald Trump’s Wednesday deadline to take military action against Iran. Tehran later confirmed that safe passage through the strait—through which a fifth of global oil and gas flows—would be allowed.

Walsh highlighted that even with crude flow resuming, disruptions in refining capacity mean supply issues will persist for some time. He noted, “I don’t think everybody fully appreciated how concentrated the capacity was in certain parts of the world.”

Historically, the aviation industry responds to higher oil prices by increasing ticket fares, which Walsh called “inevitable.” While some air traffic that would have passed through the Middle East has temporarily shifted to airlines outside the region, he said this is only a temporary solution.

“There’s no way they can replace the capacity that was provided by the Gulf carriers,” Walsh added. “I think the Gulf hubs will recover and recover very quickly.”