NASA updates asteroid threat assessment: 3.1% chance of impact in 2032
NASA has revised its assessment of asteroid 2024 YR4, now showing a 3.1% likelihood of it colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032.
Despite the increased probability, experts stress there is no immediate cause for alarm, News.Az reports, citing foreign media.
The James Webb Space Telescope will observe the asteroid next month, and additional data is expected to refine its trajectory.
Historically, similar cases have seen initial probabilities rise before dropping to zero as more precise measurements are gathered.
Discovered in December 2023, 2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 40 and 90 metres wide. If it were to hit Earth, it could generate an airburst explosion equivalent to eight megatons of TNT—500 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb. While not a global threat, it could cause catastrophic damage to a city.
Potential impact locations include the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, Africa and South Asia.
However, experts highlight that there is ample time for planetary defence measures.
NASA’s 2022 DART mission successfully altered an asteroid’s course, proving that deflection strategies could be deployed if needed.
As astronomers continue to track the asteroid, they urge the public to remain calm, noting that the probability of impact is still low and likely to decrease with further observations.
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