Thai business group lifts export growth forecast to as high as 10.5%
Thailand’s exports are expected to surge by as much as 10.5% in 2025, a significant jump from an earlier estimate of 2–3%, according to the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB).
The committee now sees export growth landing between 9.5% and 10.5%, buoyed largely by shipments of low-value goods and gold. However, it kept its forecast for economic growth steady at 1.8% to 2.2%, News.Az reports, citing Reuters.
Despite the strong export outlook, the gains are unlikely to translate into meaningful economic momentum.
“It will increase GDP growth not more than 0.4%,” said Phot Aramwattananon, a JSCCIB member and chair of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, explaining that many exports offer little local value-added. He also suggested accelerating the government’s “co-payment” consumer subsidy program to support domestic demand.
Recent government data showed signs of improvement in September, with rising exports and a rebound in manufacturing. The finance ministry last month raised its own export forecast to 10%, up from 5.5%.
Still, economists warn that higher export numbers may not reflect stronger domestic production.
“The rise in exports isn’t coming from domestic manufacturing and adds very little value,” said Lattakit Lapudomkarn of KKP Securities, adding that the spike — particularly in shipments to the U.S. — may stem from export rights from other countries and products benefiting from tariff exemptions.
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