"Trump backed down" — Expert says US made major concessions to Iran
In an exclusive interview with News.Az, Alan Cafruny, a prominent American scholar of international relations, offered a detailed and critical assessment of the evolving dynamics between the United States and Iran. He addressed the conflicting narratives of victory, the fragile nature of the ceasefire, and the broader geopolitical and economic implications of the current standoff.
- If both Iran and the US are claiming victory, what real criteria allow us to objectively determine the outcome of the conflict?
- There is much confusion surrounding the terms of the ceasefire agreement, including radically different interpretations of the 10-point plan issued weeks ago by Tehran. However, based on what we know so far, the agreement represents a significant defeat for President Donald Trump. Less than a month ago Trump declared “There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER.” Yet, the terms of the agreement reflect substantial concessions on the part of the United States: opening the Strait under the authority of the IRGC, suspension of bombing by the United States and Israel for two weeks, allowing reparations in the form of joint shipping tolls administered by Iran and Oman, and the lifting of sanctions on Iran.
- Can the current pause between Iran and the US be considered a temporary balance of power, or is it merely preparation for a new phase of escalation?
- Trump’s concessions were predictable insofar as joint US-Israeli attacks could not completely deplete Iran’s military capabilities, weaken the regime, or induce significant concessions. Indeed, on the night of April 7, Iranians, including women and children, reportedly established human chains around infrastructure. Iran’s ability to shut down the Strait indefinitely threatened the world economy and provided Iran with continuing escalation dominance.
Notwithstanding Trump’s claims of US oil and gas self-sufficiency, rising prices threatened massive blowback also for the US economy. Amid price increases and Trump’s increasingly genocidal rhetoric, including last night’s warning that “A whole civilization will die tonight,” congressional Democrats proposed impeachment or the imposition of Article 25 (removal from office based on incapacity) and even leading Republicans urged ceasefire. Not surprisingly markets appear to be strengthening. Overnight Brent crude prices fell by 13% and the Asia Pacific index increased by 4.5 per cent. Wall Street is likely to experience similar gains.
- How sustainable is the current “pause” between Iran and the US and what factors could trigger a new escalation in the near future?
- There is much ambiguity in the 10-point plan and amid reports and it is by no means clear that the ceasefire is being respected. While Israel has apparently agreed to refrain from attacks on Iran there are reports of new strikes on Hezbollah and Lebanon. Bahrain, UAE, and Kuwait are reporting drone and missile attacks from Iran.
The terms of the lifting of the Strait embargo will undoubtedly be disputed, as will sanctions relief. Both sides will use the ceasefire to replenish weapons stocks. As the “TACO” (“Trump always chickens out”) indicates, Trump has demonstrated on numerous occasions that he will abandon threats, especially as they threaten Wall Street and the American economy. However, this track record cannot always be relied on and US politics is subject to increasing volatility.
By Samir Muradov
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