Ukraine faces demographic collapse as population drops to catastrophic levels amid war

Ukraine is facing a severe demographic decline, with officials warning that the country’s population has fallen dramatically over the past generation and continues to shrink due to war, low birth rates and mass migration.

Ukraine’s Social Policy Minister Denys Uliutin said at a public forum on May 7 that only around 22 to 25 million people currently live in territory under Kyiv’s control, describing the situation as a “catastrophe.” His estimate is significantly lower than earlier projections by demographers, including the Institute of Demography and Social Studies, which placed the figure closer to 29 million, News.Az reports, citing Novinite.

The discrepancy highlights the lack of a recent census, with Ukraine last conducting a national population count in 2001. Current figures are based on modelling and administrative data rather than precise registration.

Before the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022, Ukraine’s population was already in long-term decline, falling from around 48 million after the collapse of the Soviet Union to approximately 41 million by early 2022. Experts say the war has sharply accelerated this trend through casualties, displacement and emigration.

Demographers say most recent population losses are driven by mortality rather than continued large-scale emigration, which peaked in the early months of the war. At the same time, Ukraine’s population is ageing rapidly, with a significant share now dependent on state social payments.

Officials estimate that between 13 and 15 million people receive some form of government support, reflecting both demographic ageing and economic strain caused by the conflict.

The 2022 refugee wave saw millions of women and children leave for European countries, while many men of military age remained in Ukraine due to mobilisation restrictions. Experts warn that this separation has created long-term social consequences, with many families potentially unlikely to reunite in Ukraine after the war.

Some analysts suggest that women who have established lives abroad, including employment and schooling for their children, may be more likely to remain in host countries, while men could join them abroad instead of returning.

Demographers also warn that Ukraine’s recovery will depend on long-term population policies and sustained birth rates far above current levels, which were already insufficient before the war. Even under optimistic scenarios, they say, returning to pre-war population levels would take decades.

The demographic decline has raised broader concerns about Ukraine’s future labour force, economic recovery and long-term stability, with experts comparing its potential population scale to smaller European countries, though noting Ukraine’s losses are far more severe in both speed and magnitude.

News.Az 

By Leyla Şirinova