Ukrainian transit through the Sudzha GIS decreased by 7%, but did not stop

Gas transit through the Ukrainian gas transportation system (GTS) continues only through the Sudzha gas metering station (GMS), the Nord Stream 1 main gas pipeline (MGP) will not operate in the foreseeable future, and the Polish section of the Yamal-Europe MGP is inaccessible to Gazprom, News.az reports citing Neftegaz.ru .

Supply routes

According to the Ukrainian Gas Transmission System Operator (UGTSO), applications for gas pumping through the Sudzha GIS (entry point to Ukraine from Russia of the Urengoy - Pomary - Uzhgorod gas pipeline) as of August 7, 2024 amounted to 39.529 million m3.

Gazprom, for its part, reported that it supplies Russian gas for transit through the Ukrainian GTS in the volume confirmed by the Ukrainian side through the Sudzha GIS - 39.4 million m3 as of August 7.

Applications for the Sokhranovka GIS (entry point to Ukraine of the Soyuz gas pipeline) will be rejected by the Ukrainian side from May 11, 2022 due to the force majeure declared by the UGTSO, which Gazprom considers unjustified.

From May 2022 to January 3, 2023, the volume of Russian gas transit through the Ukrainian GTS fluctuated in the range of 40-43 million m3/day, but then decreased to 24.2-25.1 million m3/day, but since February it has returned to a mark close to 40 million m3/day.

Since the beginning of 2024, the transit volume has remained close to 42 million m3/day, on August 6 the figure was the usual 42.4 million m3/day, but on August 7, 2024 it decreased by 7.08%, which may be due to the uncertainty around the Sudzha GMS.

The volume of Ukrainian transit fell below 40 million m3/day for the first time since November 27, 2023.

The utilisation of the 2nd string of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline, aimed at the market of South-Eastern Europe, continues to grow slightly.
According to the ENTSOG platform on the Strandja-2/Malkochlar GIS on the border of Turkey and Bulgaria, the physical gas flow for the gas day on August 6 was 45.43 million m3.

Renominations according to the Strandja-2/Malkochlar GIS for the gas day on August 7 indicate an increase in pumping to 45.65 million m3.

The Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline was stopped on August 31, 2022, due to problems with Siemens gas pumping units (GPU), and on September 26, 2022, both of its strings were damaged as a result of explosions in the Baltic Sea.

One line of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which is not certified by the EU, was damaged, the other could have remained unaffected, the pressure in it was reduced, there are no final conclusions about its integrity yet. Another route for Russian gas supplies to Europe - the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline - has been unavailable to Gazprom since May 11, 2022 due to the introduction of Russian counter-sanctions.

Weather, stocks and gas prices in Europe

A wave of hot air moving east from the Iberian Peninsula has engulfed Eastern Europe, while Northwestern and Central Europe have received a short respite.

Meteoalarm has issued a yellow temperature alert for Italy, Portugal, the Czech Republic, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, and an orange alert for France, Spain and Greece.

A new hot front from Africa is approaching, which has already covered the Iberian Peninsula and could cover all of Europe after August 11.

Wind power generation in Europe remains at a reduced level.

WindEurope data indicate that as of August 6, 2024, wind power accounted for 6.1% of all electricity generated in Europe (5.4% the day before).

According to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), as of August 5, 2024, underground gas storage facilities (UGS) in the EU were 86.29% full, containing 93.51 billion m3 of gas.

Over the past day, the level of UGS occupancy increased by 0.22 percentage points (by 0.26 percentage points the day before).
All European countries are pumping gas into UGS, except Denmark (selection was underway) and Sweden (zero dynamics).
In Germany, UGS are 90.34% full, in France - 79.68%, in Austria - 87.53%, in Italy - 88.69% (previously Gazprom's largest markets in Europe).

The European gas market has not yet responded to reports of the possible seizure of the Sudzha GIS by the Armed Forces of Ukraine; gas prices are falling.

September gas futures on the TTF hub (Netherlands) on ICE Futures were trading at 36.06 euros/MWh (413.7 US dollars/1000 m3) by 11:00 Moscow time on August 7, a decrease of 1.68% compared to the settlement price of the previous day.

News.Az