Alan Cafruny: Israel is preparing for further escalation against Iran

In an exclusive interview with News.Az , Alan Cafruny, the Henry Platt Bristol Professor of International Affairs at Hamilton College, shared his insights on the intensifying conflict between Iran and Israel.

According to Cafruny, I ran’s latest attacks on Israel , carried out in response to the bombing of Beirut and the assassination of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah , were markedly more aggressive than the carefully orchestrated strikes seen in the spring. Despite the severity of the attacks, Israel appears to have suffered only limited damage.

Cafruny noted that these strikes were likely intended to satisfy Iranian hardliners, who had been pushing for retaliation after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last July. The hardliners have consistently challenged the reformist president's efforts to improve relations with the West, and the recent attacks may have been designed to placate their demands. However, Tehran’s actions indicate a reluctance to engage in full-scale warfare with Israel.

While a major Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon seems unlikely, Hezbollah remains a formidable force. Although the group has been weakened by bombings and the loss of key leaders, it is still heavily armed and capable of dealing serious blows to Israel’s already fatigued Defense Forces (IDF).

Cafruny also warned that Israel is likely to pursue further escalation, particularly against Iran. Prime Minister Netanyahu has pledged that Iran will “pay” for its retaliatory strikes, and this could serve as a pretext for Israel to target Iran’s nuclear program—a long-standing strategic objective.

According to Cafruny, only the United States has the power to halt further escalation, but President Biden has so far expressed unwavering support for Israel, stating he is “fully, fully, fully” behind the country. The lack of political momentum in Washington to revive the Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) adds to the uncertainty.

Cafruny highlighted the risks for Biden, as an expanded regional war could lead to Iranian strikes on oil fields, pushing global oil prices higher—a development that could significantly impact the upcoming U.S. elections in November.

As the situation develops, the possibility of broader regional conflict looms, with global implications tied to both energy markets and geopolitical stability.

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