Can Baku become a mediator in negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv? Perspective of Ukrainian experts
By Kerim Sultanov Baku is being considered as a potential venue for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, which is linked to its growing role in international diplomacy. Azerbaijan's geopolitical location, at the crossroads of different regional interests, makes it a convenient platform for dialogue. Historically, Baku has demonstrated a willingness to participate in conflict resolution and maintain neutrality in its relations with various countries. Experts note that Azerbaijan's successful experience in international mediation could contribute to Baku's involvement in the peace process between Russia and Ukraine. A survey among Ukrainian experts was conducted to analyze this possibility.
Ruslan Bortnik, a well-known Ukrainian political scientist and director of the Ukrainian Institute of Politics, stated: “Baku could take part in the negotiation format between Ukraine and Russia, especially in issues related to gas and oil transit, as well as energy topics in general. Trade and economic relations within the post-Soviet space could also be an area of Baku's participation. Since the negotiation process between Ukraine and Russia will be divided into multiple blocks and levels, Baku could play its role in these negotiations. Ending the war solely between Ukraine and Russia is impossible, as this conflict has a geopolitical nature, reflecting the confrontation between Russia and the West.
I believe the negotiations will take place on two levels: between Russia, China, and their allies on one side, and the West on the other, as well as between Russia and Ukraine. In the context of Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, Baku could claim the role of an independent mediator, maintaining good relations with both Russia and Ukraine. Additionally, Azerbaijan is important to both sides as a key energy and economic partner. Russia aims to negotiate not only with Ukraine but also with the West. While many negotiation proposals exist, Azerbaijan’s position is fresh and original. Given its non-involvement in the conflict and the interest of both sides, Azerbaijan has significant potential as a mediator."
Director of the Institute of World Policy (Ukraine) and Associate Professor at the National Technical University of Ukraine, Yevhen Magda, commented: “It is clear that the scale of the Russian-Ukrainian war drives many countries to want to become mediators. Effective mediation in this conflict could bring at least a Nobel Peace Prize, and at most the opportunity to participate in rebuilding Ukraine’s war-torn economy. Can Azerbaijan play such a role? It's an interesting question. However, after Vladimir Putin’s visit to Baku, no visit from Volodymyr Zelensky followed.
Ukraine certainly appreciates Azerbaijan’s help, but the memorandum of cooperation between SOCAR and Gazprom causes negative reactions among many Ukrainians. There is no exact data on SOCAR sales in Ukraine, but it’s clear that this issue requires attention. Previously, Austria, the Vatican, and Mr. Erdoğan offered to mediate. Perhaps, in the future, we will see a duo of Erdoğan and Aliyev. There are many possibilities."
President of the Ukrainian Analytical Center and political analyst, Oleksandr Okhrimenko, shared his view: “As for Azerbaijan’s role as a place for negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, in principle, yes, negotiations could be held in Baku, as it is neutral territory. Holding talks in Moscow or Kyiv is practically impossible. However, it’s important to note that at this point, neither Ukraine nor Russia is ready for negotiations.
So, as a venue, Baku has potential, but even if the two delegations meet in Baku, it is unlikely to resolve the conflict. Despite his efforts, Aliyev cannot reconcile Russia and Ukraine, just as Biden or Xi Jinping cannot. There is no leader in the world who can end this war now. Even Trump, claiming he can quickly end the war, is exaggerating. The problem is that the conflict cannot be resolved quickly due to massive property interests.
When the war started, everything related to Russian business in Ukraine was seized. Russian business has completely disappeared from Ukrainian territory. At the same time, Ukrainian assets were seized in Russia.
This conflict of property interests prevents both sides from coming to the negotiating table. The main
question is who lost more due to the confiscation of businesses.
The talks in Istanbul also stalled not because of political issues, such as Victoria Nuland’s position, but because of property claims. Russian businesses demanded the return of their assets in Ukraine or compensation, but there was no money for that, and the agreements couldn’t be implemented. The issue wasn’t about politics but about money.
Solving this problem will take time. Currently, neither Ukrainian nor Russian businesses are ready to reconcile. Each side continues to present its property claims. Perhaps in 20–30 years, when the assets lose their value, negotiations will become possible. Right now, it’s unrealistic.
Ukraine’s budget for 2025 already includes war expenditures, which indicates that no one expects the war to end soon. Russia is also approving a military budget, making talks of possible negotiations seem unrealistic.”
Ukrainian political analyst Ivan Us added: “Azerbaijan could be considered one of the potential options for future negotiations. However, in political circles, the question of the location of the talks has not yet been raised, although India is most frequently mentioned as the preferred option.”
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