China and the U.S.: Who will bring Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table?

Editor's note: Engin Ozer is a Turkish political scientist, analyst.

The possibility of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia in the coming months remains highly complex and uncertain. Despite growing war fatigue and the necessity to seek ways to end the conflict, the chances of reaching a comprehensive peace agreement currently appear low. However, there is a possibility of informal negotiations occurring behind closed doors before the U.S. presidential elections , which could significantly influence the further development of events.

Should an administration come to power that is more inclined toward diplomatic conflict resolution, an agreement on a ceasefire, similar to the Korean model where the conflict is frozen but not fully resolved, might be reached. This could serve as a temporary solution, allowing a de-escalation of hostilities but not ensuring lasting peace.

China, with its significant economic influence over Russia and its desire to maintain balance and stability in the region, could also play a key role in this process. In recent years, Beijing has increasingly asserted its mediating ambitions on the global stage, and the situation in Ukraine is no exception. China is not only interested in maintaining stability but also has the economic leverage to pressure the conflict parties into achieving a temporary truce or ceasefire agreement.

The role of the United States remains crucial. A U.S. decision to cease military and economic aid to Ukraine, while unlikely, would severely weaken Ukraine's negotiating position. On the other hand, providing Ukraine with more powerful weapons and allowing strikes on Russian territory could radically change the course of the war, creating new conditions for negotiations.

Holding a referendum in Ukraine on a peace agreement with Russia seems unlikely for several reasons. The complexity lies in the fact that about 8 million Ukrainians are currently in Europe as refugees, and a significant portion of the population in eastern Ukraine resides in Russia or in territories controlled by Russia. Under these conditions, organizing a referendum that would include all Ukrainian citizens is extremely difficult. Even if such a referendum is organized, its objectivity and legitimacy could be questioned, further deepening the crisis of trust.

Most likely, if a referendum does take place, it will focus not on the issue of ceding territories but on a ceasefire. It is important to consider that the occupied territories of Ukraine have already been included in Russia's constitution. Therefore, holding a referendum on a peace agreement that considers these territories does not seem realistic. Instead, the focus will likely be on finding a temporary solution that allows for a cessation of active hostilities and the maintenance of the status quo until a more sustainable agreement can be reached.

President Zelensky's rhetoric in favor of peace talks may also shift under the influence of internal and external political dynamics. The Istanbul talks, which once offered the possibility of ending the conflict, seemed like a real chance for Ukraine. However, the refusal to negotiate with Russia, dictated by political considerations, has led to the prolongation of the conflict and the deepening of the crisis. Today, especially with Donald Trump's rising popularity in the U.S ., adds a new dimension to potential scenarios. Trump, known for his inclination towards diplomatic solutions, may pressure Zelensky to start negotiations with Russia, which could open new possibilities for ending the conflict.

China, for its part, is already actively involved in diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict. Talks in Beijing and statements by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba about the productivity of the meeting with Chinese diplomats indicate that Ukraine is pinning hopes on China's mediation. In this context, China's participation in peace talks is strategically important for both Ukraine and Russia.

If the parties fail to reach a comprehensive peace agreement, there is a high likelihood of the conflict being frozen. In this case, a demilitarized zone with the deployment of international peacekeeping forces could be established, effectively leading to a prolonged freezing of the conflict, similar to the Korean scenario. Ukraine is likely to receive security guarantees from the West, which would strengthen its position. However, any compromise not approved by the Verkhovna Rada and the Ukrainian people could lead to domestic political instability. The Ukrainian constitution prohibits the ceding of territories, and any deviation from this principle could cause significant dissatisfaction among both politicians and the public.

In conclusion, the current situation remains extremely challenging, and the likelihood of reaching a comprehensive peace agreement in the near future is low. Most likely, the conflict will be frozen, which would avoid further bloodshed but not bring a final resolution, leaving the status of the occupied territories unresolved for an indefinite period.

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