Israel in the context of the new Middle East
On Monday, February 3, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived in Washington for a meeting with Donald Trump.
The Israeli leader was the first foreign head of state invited to the White House following the inauguration of the 47th President of the United States. Netanyahu views this not only as a testament to the special respect for his country but also as a symbol of the close and friendly relations between the two nations, particularly in the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. As Netanyahu noted, "Israeli military operations have completely reshaped the map of the Middle East. I believe that by working closely with President Trump, we can radically change it for the better. And these are not just empty words. Hamas has practically lost its ability to resist, Hezbollah's strength has been undermined, which contributed to the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and the weakening of the Shia position in Lebanon, leading to the election of a new president after a long hiatus and the appointment of a prime minister. The fragile ceasefire in the Gaza Strip is on the verge of collapse at any moment."
“I have no guarantees that peace will hold,” Trump stated, referring to the ceasefire between Hamas and the State of Israel. In other words, the U.S. president made it clear that he would not intervene if military actions resumed in the enclave. Amid the ceasefire in Gaza, Israel has intensified counterterrorism operations in Judea and Samaria. On Sunday, February 2, the IDF announced that it was expanding its operations against terrorist groups in Jenin and Tamun. Newly appointed Chief of the General Staff of the IDF, Eyal Zamir, declared that the war would continue until a complete victory over the extremists was achieved.
One of the key topics of the Washington talks was countering Iran’s nuclear program. Israel is pressuring the United States to allow it to strike at the Islamic Republic's nuclear facilities. In response, Donald Trump is emphasizing a return to the "maximum pressure" policy on Iran, aiming to force Tehran to abandon its nuclear ambitions. According to Reuters, the U.S. president plans to reimplement this strategy by increasing sanctions against Iran’s oil industry. However, Trump acknowledged, "I’m not happy to sign this document," adding that he hopes it will not need to be used. Nevertheless, he stressed that his ultimate goal is to ensure that "Iran’s oil exports drop to zero." He hinted at the possibility of a deal with the Iranian regime but did not rule out other options.
Following the announcement of the U.S. presidential election results, the Iranian rial sharply depreciated against the American dollar, reaching a rate of 700,000 rials per dollar.
The U.S. president also signaled his intent to radically and definitively resolve the Israeli-Arab conflict. He floated the idea of relocating the residents of Gaza to other countries, mentioning Jordan and Egypt as potential destinations. These nations heavily depend on the United States, which provides them with weapons, wheat, and other aid, mostly as non-repayable assistance. Besides these, other locations for resettlement are being considered.
When asked whether he was prepared to send U.S. troops to fill the security vacuum in Gaza, Trump responded, "If necessary, we will do it." Moreover, Washington may adopt a harsher stance if Hamas fails to uphold its commitments regarding the release of hostages. “We want all hostages released, and if that doesn’t happen, it will just make us a little bit tougher,” he warned.
Furthermore, Trump stated that the Gaza Strip is a "demolition site." The United States intends to take control of the territory. "We will own it and be responsible for dismantling all dangerous unexploded bombs and other weapons in that area." According to the president, destroyed buildings will be removed, and economic development will be ensured, providing unlimited job opportunities and housing for the local population. Gaza is expected to become "an incredible international destination"—a "Middle Eastern Riviera." Trump believes this vision "could change history" for the entire region.
The U.S. will not finance the resettlement of refugees, instead proposing that the wealthy Gulf states bear these costs. Trump's remarks on the geographical scale of Israel compared to the broader Middle East were particularly unexpected. Responding to a journalist’s question about whether the U.S. would support Israel’s annexation of the West Bank (Judea and Samaria), Trump said: “[Israel] is, of course, a very, very small country in terms of territory. See this pen? My desk represents the Middle East, and this pen—its tip—is Israel. That’s not good, right? You see, it’s quite a big difference.”
Regarding Syria and Lebanon, the U.S.'s primary goal is to strengthen their new governments to prevent external forces, such as Iran or Türkiye, from manipulating power behind the scenes. In Lebanon, Washington aims to prevent the resurgence of Hezbollah, while in Syria, it intends to support Kurds, Druze, Christians, and Alawites in building a "free, unified, but decentralized" Syria. The U.S. will encourage steps toward establishing a border demarcation and monitoring agreement between Israel and Lebanon, renewing the buffer zone agreement on the Golan Heights between Israel and Syria, and ultimately securing lasting peace in the region.
Trump is convinced that peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia is not only achievable but inevitable.
From all this, it is evident that the long-standing "two states for two peoples" concept is being relegated to history. Using U.S. financial leverage and resources, President Trump will likely extend his country’s hegemony for many years. It is highly probable that this will be achieved through a system of vassalage.
(If you possess specialized knowledge and wish to contribute, please reach out to us at opinions@news.az).
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