Russia boosts gas exports to China, aiming to catch up with Turkmenistan
By Samir Muradov
In the first nine months of 2024 Russian pipeline gas exports to China surged by 23% compared to the same period last year, according to data from China's General Administration of Customs. The monetary value of Russian gas deliveries during this period reached $6.1 billion, underscoring a significant strengthening of ties between the two countries in the energy sector.
Despite this significant growth, Russia remains the second-largest supplier of pipeline gas to China, behind the market leader, Turkmenistan. During the first nine months of 2024, Turkmenistan exported gas worth $7.4 billion, maintaining its position as China’s largest partner in this sector. This leadership status is attributed to long-standing, robust contracts that Beijing and Ashgabat have sustained at a high level over the years.
Following Russia, Kazakhstan ranks third in the Chinese market with $1.05 billion in exports, followed by Myanmar ($1.04 billion) and Uzbekistan ($499 million). This lineup underscores China’s active diversification of its gas sources to mitigate risks and strengthen its energy security.
A notable achievement for Russia was the record gas exports via the "Power of Siberia" pipeline in 2023, when shipments to China increased by 1.5 times, reaching 22.7 billion cubic meters. This milestone marked a significant chapter in Russia-China energy cooperation, laying the groundwork for further growth in export volumes.
In 2024, Gazprom once again exceeded its initial supply plan, exporting over 1 billion cubic meters more than initially planned. This indicates a growing mutual interest and Russia’s readiness to expand its export capacity to meet China’s demand.
The intensification of gas trade between Russia and China is significant not only from an economic standpoint but also politically. For Russia, the Chinese market has become a key focus amid restrictions on exports to Europe due to sanctions. Strategic partnership with China allows Russia to diversify its export routes and offset the loss of European clients. This also bolsters economic ties between the two major global powers, maintaining a balance of interests amid global competition.
For China, Russian gas is an essential component of its energy strategy. Beijing aims to reduce coal dependence and increase the share of gas and renewable energy in its energy mix. Russian pipeline gas ensures stable supplies at competitive prices, aligning with China’s long-term goals of securing energy security.
With the expansion of pipeline infrastructure, including plans to construct new branches of the "Power of Siberia," further growth in export volumes can be expected. However, several challenges remain. These include the need to negotiate new long-term contracts, maintain competitive pricing, and address political risks associated with potential changes in global energy markets.
China is actively investing in its own gas exploration projects and expanding LNG terminal capacity to reduce reliance on imports. Therefore, Russia must consider potential shifts in China’s energy policy and adapt its strategy accordingly in the long run.
Russian pipeline gas exports to China in 2024 demonstrate steady growth and the strengthening of Russia's position in the Chinese energy market. Despite competition from Turkmenistan and other suppliers, Russia-China energy cooperation continues to grow and deepen, opening new opportunities for both countries. Amid geopolitical challenges and shifts in global markets, such partnerships are not only economically beneficial but also strategically significant.
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