Theodore Karasik: TRIPP is a major part of America’s interest - INTERVIEW
News.Az interview with Theodore Karasik, non-resident scholar at the Jamestown Foundation.
- How do you assess the process of normalization of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia?
- The process of normalization of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia is progressing nicely compared to where it was before. Of course, there will be grievances, but as time goes by, and there is hopefully increasing cooperation, then that is for the best outcome in the Caucasus.
Interconnectivity is important for both countries, and to ignore the geography is counterproductive. There is room for growth. But there is no doubt that after Azerbaijan’s success, then Armenia also did benefit quite a bit. Hopefully that process will continue.
Photo: AZERTAC
- Recently, the Stratfor center published a forecast on the further development of the situation between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Do you agree with this forecast?
- Stratfor's assessment is actually quite accurate, and covering our media and Russia, in terms of pivot and a weakening Russian grip. Moscow has definitely been challenged considerably in the past year. So, indeed, there is a realignment that’s occurred that must also take into consideration where Georgia is now.
Tbilisi is close to Russia, and there is every possibility that Moscow would try to hang onto that country as long as possible. If there is an agreement to use halt the war over Ukraine, then Russia would focus on Georgia worth more effort. Finally, piece prospects for a comprehensive agreement are probably not going to occur in the near term because of continued stresses between the two countries based on history and perception, but overall the region is vastly improved than what it was a decade ago.
Photo: Anadolu Agency
- What is the interest in the South Caucasus primarily for the United States? Will the course of the White House's policy in the South Caucasus change after the departure of Donald Trump?
- US interest in the region is about logistics and economics to develop the Middle Corridor to isolate Russia. The Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) is a major part of America’s interest, especially because it has President Trump’s name on it, but also because of what the corridor does for the countries surrounding it, especially regarding Iran. After the Trump administration leaves office, the next administration will likely continue this attention - because of the importance of the South Caucuses.
Stability is important and there is very likely to be attention as Iran goes through its revolutionary change that erupted in January 2026. Any a new Iranian government is likely to be led by the IRGC so this factor will need to be considered by all parties in terms of threat, and not cooperation, potentially.
By Asif Aydinli
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