IMF lifts 2026 growth outlook amid AI and trade gains
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its global growth forecast for 2026 on Monday, citing businesses and economies adapting to eased U.S. tariffs and a continued surge in AI investment, which has boosted asset values and expectations of productivity gains.
In its World Economic Outlook update, the IMF projected global GDP growth at 3.3% for 2026, up 0.2 percentage points from its October estimate. This follows 3.3% growth in 2025, which also exceeded the IMF’s previous forecast by 0.1 percentage point, News.Az reports, citing Reuters.
The IMF maintained its 2027 global growth forecast at 3.2%, unchanged from the prior estimate. The organization has consistently revised global growth rates upward since July 2025, reflecting trade agreements that reduced U.S. tariff rates, which had peaked in April 2025.
"We find that global growth remains quite resilient," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters, adding that the Fund's 2025 and 2026 growth forecasts now exceed predictions made in October 2024, before Trump was elected to a second term.
"So, in a sense, the global economy is shaking off the trade and tariff disruptions of 2025 and is coming out ahead of what we were expecting before it all started," Gourinchas said.
He said businesses have been able to adapt to higher U.S. tariff rates by rerouting supply chains, while trade agreements have lowered some duties and China has shifted exports to non-U.S. markets. The latest IMF forecasts assume an effective U.S. tariff rate of 18.5% down from about 25% in the Fund's April 2025 forecast.
The IMF estimated U.S. growth for 2026 at 2.4%, up 0.3 percentage point from October, due in part to a big push from massive investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure including data centers, powerful AI chips and power. The IMF edged its 2027 growth forecast a tenth of a point lower to 2.0%.
The IMF also said technology investment was boosting activity in Spain, which saw 0.3 percentage point upgrade to its 2026 GDP forecast to 2.3%, and in Britain, where the IMF kept its forecast unchanged at 1.3% for 2026.
Gourinchas said the AI boom poses risks for heightened inflation if it continues at its breakneck pace. But he added that if expectations that AI-driven productivity gains and profits are not realized, this could spark a correction in high market valuations that could crimp demand.
The IMF report lists AI as among risks that are tilted to the downside, along with disruptions to supply chains and markets from geopolitical tensions as well as new flare-ups in trade tensions.
A Supreme Court decision against Trump's broad tariffs under an emergency sanctions law, expected in coming days or weeks, "would inject another dose of trade policy uncertainty into the global economy" if Trump resurrects new tariffs under other trade laws, Gourinchas said.
Among forecasts for other major economies, the IMF said China's 2026 growth would reach 4.5%, down from a stronger-than-expected 5.0% performance in 2025, but 0.3 percentage point higher than October estimates. The upgrade reflects a 10 percentage-point reduction in U.S. tariff rates on Chinese goods for a year as well as continued diversion of exports to other markets such as Southeast Asia and Europe.
The IMF forecast euro zone growth at 1.3% for 2026, up 0.1 percentage point from the October estimate, driven by increased public spending in Germany and stronger performances in Spain and Ireland. The Fund kept its 2027 euro zone growth forecast unchanged at 1.4%, noting that planned European increases in defense spending would materialize only in later years.
Japan also saw a slight upgrade to 2026 growth due to its new government's fiscal stimulus package, but Brazil was a notable outlier to the improvement trend, with a 0.3 percentage point reduction in its 2026 growth rate to 1.6% since October. IMF officials attributed the downgrade largely to tighter monetary policy needed to fight a flare-up in inflation last year.
The IMF said that globally, inflation was forecast to continue to decline, from 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. Gourinchas said this leaves room for more accommodative monetary policy that will help underpin growth.
But the IMF said that AI represents significant upside for the global economy if the investment surge leads to rapid adoption and productivity gains are realized and boost business dynamism and innovation.
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