The probe is led by Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Transport with participation from representatives of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), Azerbaijan, Brazil, and Russia, News.Az reports, citing AZERTAC. Simultaneously, the investigative authorities of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia are conducting criminal investigations into the crash within their respective jurisdictions.
In line with ICAO requirements, Kazakhstan published a preliminary report in February 2025, which outlined only established facts without analysis or conclusions. As the final report — expected to include a comprehensive investigation under the Chicago Convention — could not be completed by the anniversary of the crash, Kazakhstan issued an interim statement for public release.
The interim statement confirms that the aircraft’s oxygen cylinders were undamaged, ruling out an internal explosion. It also identifies foreign metal objects that damaged the aircraft as fragments of an explosive device linked to a weapon system, though the specific model is not named. Previously, Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged that the weapon system belonged to Russia’s Ministry of Defense.
Kazakhstan is expected to release a final report presenting a detailed account of the investigation, including all factual findings, an analysis of the crash’s cause, and recommendations to prevent similar incidents. According to the interim statement and the joint assessment of experts from Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan, Brazil, and ICAO, the aircraft lost control and crashed not due to technical malfunction but as a result of external interference, specifically being shot down.
