Could the crash be deliberate? – Turkish expert Atabay on Azerbaijan Airlines tragedy
News.az presents an interview with Turkish expert Ünal Atabay, a retired Chief of Staff Colonel specializing in strategy and security policies.
The recent crash of Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243, operating the Baku-Grozny route, has raised numerous questions and sparked widespread speculation. The Embraer 190 aircraft reportedly went down due to external physical and technical interference. While the exact cause remains under investigation, theories range from accidental targeting to deliberate geopolitical maneuvering. In this exclusive interview, Ünal Atabay shares his expert insights into the incident, addressing potential causes, geopolitical implications, and the steps needed to uncover the truth.
- Mr. Atabay, Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243 recently crashed near Grozny, reportedly due to external interference. What are your thoughts on this tragic incident?
- First and foremost, this is an incredibly tragic event. Speculation in both social media and the press suggests that the aircraft may have been accidentally struck while Ukraine was attempting to launch an attack using drones (UAVs). While this remains a theory, it highlights the urgent need for a thorough investigation. A joint technical committee comprising experts from Russia, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan should be formed to examine the black box data, technical details, and communications records. This collaborative approach is essential since relevant information is spread across these three countries.
- Could this incident have been a mistake, or do you believe it was deliberate?
- It could go either way. The evidence suggests the plane was hit by an air defense weapon. This might have been an unfortunate mistake, or it could have been intentional. Ukraine's recent drone attacks against Russia have led to the deployment of air defense systems, such as Pantsir-S1, in regions like Grozny, Chechnya, to counter these threats. These systems may have misidentified the civilian aircraft as a target. However, we must wait for the technical investigations to clarify this.
There is also a geopolitical angle to consider. Relations between Russia, Türkiye, and Azerbaijan are strong, but certain Western actors, particularly the United States, might seek to exploit the situation to create tension. For instance, by using Ukraine's drone strikes, they could orchestrate an incident like this to harm the relationship between these nations. Additionally, Ukraine might see this as an opportunity to undermine Ramzan Kadyrov, given his unwavering support for Russia. The West has long been concerned about Chechnya’s strong alliance with Moscow.
The Caspian Sea could go the way of the Aral Sea thanks to global warming. The sea level is already falling, but could drop by up to 18 metres if it continues to evaporate at the current pace and the northern section could disappear entirely say scientists. / NASA
- What do you make of the decision to divert the flight over the Caspian Sea instead of landing at the nearest airport?
- That decision raises significant questions. If the plane had been allowed to land in Dagestan, it would have covered a shorter distance, potentially avoiding complications. Instead, it was forced to cross the Caspian Sea, which extended the route and increased the difficulty of landing. Why didn’t Russian authorities permit landing at a closer airport? Was the flight intentionally redirected? These questions require detailed investigation of flight records, technical documentation, and communication transcripts. Only then will we have clear answers.
- In your opinion, what should be the next steps to uncover the truth about this incident?
- The most important thing is to await the results of technical investigations and official statements from Russia. The black box analysis and the work of a joint technical committee will be crucial in determining exactly what happened. At present, Russian authorities remain largely silent, making it difficult to draw definitive conclusions. As investigations progress, the involved parties will need to assess their positions based on the findings. For now, all we can do is wait and refrain from making premature judgments.
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