Iran: Towards peace or war?
Editor's note: Moses Becker is a special commentator on political issues for News.Az, a PhD in political science and an expert on interethnic and interreligious relations. The article expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the view of News.Az.
The ceasefire declared on June 23, 2025, by U.S. President Donald Trump between Israel and Iran has finally taken effect. After twelve days of intense aerial bombardments and retaliatory strikes, both sides agreed to pause the fighting and give diplomacy a chance. But while the guns have temporarily fallen silent, the political noise continues to rise.
Emerging from what many suspect was a deep underground bunker, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appeared—or was projected—to deliver a speech hailing an unconditional victory over the "Zionist enemy" and the United States. No evidence of such a victory was presented. Some intelligence sources speculate that the address was an AI-generated simulation, given the opaque circumstances surrounding Khamenei’s appearance.
President Donald Trump, in a sharply worded Truth Social post, dismissed the claim as absurd: “You are a man of deep faith, greatly respected in your country—but you must speak the truth. You suffered a crushing defeat.” Trump went further, stating that he had personally saved Khamenei from what he described as “a terrible and shameful death” planned by Israeli intelligence. "I knew exactly where he was," Trump wrote, "but I prevented Israel and U.S. forces from eliminating him."
Tehran today resembles a theater of the absurd. The Islamic Republic is sinking deeper into political chaos. The recent war exposed the fragility and ineffectiveness of Iran’s military defenses. Not a single Iranian Air Force fighter took to the skies. The regime’s vaunted air defense system was utterly impotent in the face of Israel’s aerial superiority. Israeli jets operated over Iranian territory with near-total impunity.
On the international stage, Iran found itself alone. While some countries expressed mild sympathy or issued condemnations of Israel, no nation rose in serious defense of Tehran. The Islamic regime is now more isolated than ever. This isolation, combined with the significant degradation of Iran’s proxy capabilities, has reassured many Arab leaders that Tehran will think twice before engaging in further regional adventurism. The Arab world has long suspected Iran of exploiting Shiite communities to destabilize neighboring regimes—Syria and Lebanon being prime examples.
The Islamic Republic’s insistence on developing military capabilities, including its nuclear and ballistic programs, stems from this chronic sense of vulnerability. Yet, the war has left Iran’s nuclear infrastructure in ruins. According to recent intelligence, key nuclear sites in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan have suffered critical damage. Thousands of centrifuges have been destroyed, research facilities have been bombed, and classified documents obliterated. At least nine Iranian nuclear scientists and 30 senior military commanders were reportedly killed.
The image provided by Maxar Technologies shows damage at Iran's Fordo enrichment facility after US strikes on June 23. (Maxar Technologies via AP)
The war’s impact is significant: Iran's nuclear program has likely been set back by several years. CIA Director John Ratcliffe, speaking to TengriNews, confirmed that restoring Iran’s enrichment capabilities will be a long and uncertain process.
Yet a ceasefire is not peace. As Trump has emphasized, the truce is merely a pause. If Tehran refuses meaningful concessions at the negotiating table, a new round of war could erupt—this time with even greater force. For now, Israel is using the lull to focus its efforts on eliminating Hamas in Gaza once and for all. Should this campaign succeed, pressure on the Iranian regime will only intensify.
IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir stated that the Israeli military’s current priority is the “completion” of operations in Gaza. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has denied reports of upcoming talks with the U.S., contradicting President Trump’s earlier statements. According to Araghchi, Tehran is still assessing whether continuing the dialogue is worthwhile. He also admitted that Iran’s nuclear sites sustained serious damage during the war, and assessments by the Atomic Energy Organization are ongoing.
In this context, agreeing to talks could be seen as a de facto surrender—a move the regime is not yet prepared to make.
Interestingly, the 12-day war has opened new diplomatic opportunities for Israel. According to IDF sources, Israeli jets conducted over 1,500 combat sorties, intercepting 99% of Iranian drones. These operational successes have laid the groundwork for an expansion of the Abraham Accords—the peace agreements between Israel and several Arab states. Observers now speculate that both Syria and Saudi Arabia are potential candidates for normalization.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed this shift in a June 26 video address: “We fought valiantly against Iran and achieved a great victory. This opens the door to dramatically expanding peace agreements across the region.” He added that now is the time to act—not just to advance diplomacy, but also to secure the release of Israeli hostages still held since the October 7, 2023 Hamas massacre.
Photo: The Times of Israel
Indeed, developments in Gaza are accelerating this transformation. For the first time, local clans have begun resisting Hamas control, independently organizing humanitarian aid distribution. Civilian opposition to Hamas rule is growing, undermining the group’s authority from within.
Meanwhile, White House Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt revealed that full diplomatic normalization between Israel and Syria may be on the horizon. She disclosed that President Trump had met with Ahmed al-Sharaa, head of Syria’s transitional government, during a visit to Saudi Arabia on May 14. One of the conditions for U.S.–Syrian engagement, she said, was Damascus’ willingness to join the Abraham Accords. “We want to see lasting peace in the Middle East,” Leavitt emphasized. “This is the only viable path forward.”
Before the war, Saudi Arabia had been considered the leading candidate for normalization with Israel. But those plans were derailed following Iran’s instigation of the October 7 massacre—an event now widely seen as Tehran’s effort to sabotage peace efforts.
According to Axios, Netanyahu is expected to travel to Washington soon for a personal meeting with President Trump. Among other issues, they will reportedly discuss ending the military campaign in Gaza. “Trump wants to conclude this conflict as soon as possible,” the report stated.
In short, the United States is seeking to reshape the Middle East decisively, ensuring that Iran—or any other hostile power—cannot undermine regional peace and stability again. But whether this truce marks the beginning of a genuine peace or merely a pause before a more devastating war remains an open question.
(If you possess specialized knowledge and wish to contribute, please reach out to us at opinions@news.az).
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