Rinat Kovbasyuk: Western partners will back Kyiv despite corruption case - INTERVIEW
Ukrainian political analyst Rinat Kovbasyuk provides sharp insights into several pressing developments — from Russia’s missile strike on Azerbaijan’s Embassy in Kyiv to the political fate of Mikheil Saakashvili, ongoing corruption scandals in Ukraine, and the durability of Western support for Kyiv.
In an interview with News.Az, Kovbasyuk discusses the broader implications of these events for regional stability, Ukrainian politics, and international diplomacy, offering a candid assessment of the challenges facing Ukraine and its partners.
— How would you comment on Russia’s missile strike on Azerbaijan’s Embassy in Kyiv?
— This latest Russian attack once again damaged the Azerbaijani Embassy in Ukraine, highlighting how few safe places remain in Kyiv. Whether you are an ordinary resident or an Azerbaijani diplomat, everyone is now at risk.
While the exact motives behind the Kremlin’s decision to target the Azerbaijani Embassy remain unclear, what is certain is that civilian lives, including those of Azerbaijani citizens, were endangered once again. Although the international community strongly condemned the strike and expressed solidarity with both Ukraine and the Azerbaijani diplomatic corps, these reactions are not enough. Only a complete ceasefire can prevent further loss of life.
The shelling of a third country’s embassy, in this case, Azerbaijan, constitutes, de jure, an attack on another state’s territory. It is yet another test of patience. Azerbaijan has already responded by summoning the Russian ambassador. However, it is unlikely that the Kremlin will gain anything from this incident other than further deterioration of Russia–Azerbaijan relations. The embassy staff were civilians, not military personnel, and the building was not a military target.
Moscow’s behavior increasingly resembles that of a suicide bomber willing to cause chaos regardless of the consequences. Therefore, it would not be surprising if Russian missiles eventually threaten other foreign embassies, particularly Western ones. Ultimately, the question is whether we allow this to continue. It is rhetorical, but action is needed, and soon.
Photo: Reuters
— Former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili has been moved from the hospital back to prison and has appealed to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to recognize him as a Ukrainian civilian prisoner of war and exchange him. Could Georgian authorities agree to return Saakashvili to Ukraine to influence the West’s stance toward Tbilisi?
— Predicting this is difficult, but in my view, President Zelensky is not particularly interested in Saakashvili’s return to Ukraine. Saakashvili’s political activity in Ukraine previously created significant instability within the Ukrainian political system. He is a highly unpredictable politician who aims to radically transform the country. Given the entrenched corruption within the Ukrainian political establishment and his determination to eliminate it, Saakashvili is unwelcome, even by the president.
He has become a redundant figure amid the continuous flow of political and financial interests. Neither Ukrainian elites nor society are prepared for a politician like him. Corruption has deeply permeated Ukrainian society and is extremely difficult to uproot. Saakashvili stands out as a disruptive force within this political chaos.
As for Europe, it might overlook certain things if Saakashvili is released, but overall, it is unlikely that the current Georgian government, by violating opposition rights, will be able to secure a major deal with the EU. All signs indicate that Georgia may even lose its visa-free regime, which would serve as a strong warning from Brussels. European bureaucrats would not oppose such a move, since many Georgians continue to apply for refugee status despite frequent rejections. Ending visa-free travel would reduce financial and administrative burdens on the EU.
— Ukraine was recently shaken by a corruption scandal involving Zelensky’s associate Timur Mindich, who is accused of orchestrating large-scale embezzlement at Energoatom. How could this affect Zelensky’s standing?
— The Energoatom corruption scandal certainly does not help the president’s popularity. However, Ukrainian society is already deeply politicized, and such revelations rarely surprise the public anymore. Anti-corruption agencies offer some hope, but their effectiveness is uncertain, as political elites routinely attempt to influence their work.
Since elections cannot currently be held, neither technically nor legally, Zelensky will remain in office regardless, meaning this scandal is unlikely to significantly affect his approval ratings.
Ukrainians often have short political memories and struggle to critically analyze political information, creating ideal conditions for manipulation by political strategists who can easily redirect public attention. So, there won’t be any major upheavals in the Ukrainian political arena anytime soon. Of course, some officials will be removed from office, and some will be temporarily imprisoned, but overall, this cycle will continue. Another fantastical plot is guaranteed, fortunately, there will always be viewers.
Photo: CNA
— How could this scandal influence Western support for the current Ukrainian government?
— In short, it likely will not. The EU, and to some extent the United States, recognize that the priority today is the survival of Ukraine as a state, not the elimination of corruption, despite its seriousness. The fall of Ukraine would create far greater problems for Europe.
Western partners will continue engaging with Kyiv, applying pressure and issuing warnings when necessary, particularly given Ukraine’s aspiration to join the EU. But under current circumstances, these scandals are unlikely to significantly alter the West’s overall support for the Ukrainian government.
By Asif Aydinli
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