The Russian military base in Gyumri will continue operations without Armenia's involvement - Expert Opinions
By Sabina Alizade
The withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Azerbaijan, particularly from the Karabakh region, reflects a significant moment in the evolving political landscape of the South Caucasus. This process, agreed upon by Russia and Azerbaijan, does not seem to be creating tension between the two nations. Rather, it underscores the fulfillment of earlier commitments outlined in the trilateral agreements from November 10, 2020, which aimed to stabilize the region after prolonged conflict.
Both Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov and Hikmet Hajiyev from Azerbaijan have publicly confirmed the smooth progression of the peacekeepers' withdrawal. This mutual agreement and orderly execution suggest a continued partnership and understanding between Russia and Azerbaijan, focusing on maintaining peace and security in the area.
The successful completion of the peacekeepers’ mission, as noted by Russian political scientist Yevgeny Mikhailov, indicates that both nations see the withdrawal not as a breakdown in relations but as a step towards achieving their joint objectives.
Mikhailov discussed the security situation in the South Caucasus, particularly focusing on Armenia's arms supplies from certain countries. Mikhailov asserted that Russia consistently responds promptly to national security threats in the region. He also praised Azerbaijan's effective response to threats from Armenia.
"Russia maintains close ties with Azerbaijan, and our commitment to the region remains strong. The need for peacekeepers has diminished, but this does not imply a withdrawal from the region," Mikhailov stated. He emphasized highlighting the strategic importance of the Russian military base in Gyumri and border guards who continue to oversee control in the South Caucasus.
Mikhailov also clarified that the Russian military base in Gyumri would remain operational, even without Armenia's involvement, underscoring Russia's long-term strategic interests in the area.
Russian political analyst Sergey Markov has announced that Russian peacekeepers are withdrawing from Karabakh as their reasons for being in the region are no longer valid. Markov outlined two key developments prompting this move:
"The first pertains to the Sochi Agreement, signed in November 2020, which was never legally nullified despite significant changes in regional conditions. Originally, the peacekeepers were tasked with two main objectives: ensuring a ceasefire between the Armenian and Azerbaijani forces present in Karabakh and protecting the peaceful Armenian population in parts of Karabakh not governed by Azerbaijan, without Armenian military presence. These conditions have ceased to exist," Markov explained.
He further stated that following a limited anti-terrorist campaign by the Azerbaijani army, the Armenian forces capitulated completely, making it unnecessary to delineate boundaries between Azerbaijani forces and Russian peacekeepers. Markov also noted the evacuation of the Armenian population from Karabakh by the Armenian government, which has negated the need for their protection by Russian forces. The security of the Azerbaijani population in the previously occupied territories is now managed by Azerbaijan's legitimate authorities.
Markov suggested that the departure of Russian troops could have occurred earlier but was delayed to underscore the ongoing friendly relations between Russia and Azerbaijan.
He also highlighted Azerbaijan's repeated assurances to the Armenian civilians in Karabakh, offering security and the option to remain on Azerbaijani soil. "During the evacuation, the Azerbaijani government made several overtures to the departing Armenians, proposing Azerbaijani citizenship and the possibility of return at any time. Their properties and rights were to be fully protected, including rights to practice their religion, educate their children in Armenian, and participate in local governance. Despite these assurances, it is now apparent that the Armenian population will not return," Markov added.
The analyst concluded that the Armenian government, by preventing the return of its people and conducting anti-Azerbaijani propaganda, has been instilling fear among the Armenians of Karabakh.
In his final remarks, Markov stressed that the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers aligns with the agreements between Russia and Azerbaijan and will not affect the positive bilateral relations between the two nations.
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