Speaking in an interview, Karimi said the current protest movement has pushed the Islamic Republic into a critical phase with no alternative outcomes beyond two distinct scenarios, News.Az reports, citing foreign media.
The first scenario, he explained, involves rising internal pressure forcing the authorities into temporary negotiations. This could bring short-term economic relief and limited concessions, but would also trigger deep socio-political changes that effectively transform the existing system. Karimi believes such an arrangement would be short-lived and would lead to rapid political restructuring in Iran.
The second — and more likely — scenario, according to the analyst, is the continuation of the uprising alongside intensified repression. In this case, growing external support for protesters could eventually contribute to the collapse of the current regime, followed by the return of Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi and the start of a democratic transition period.
“There is no third scenario. The Islamic Republic, as we have known it, is already finished,” Karimi stated.
He also argued that external assistance aimed at dismantling the regime’s security structures — rather than harming civilians — would be welcomed by many Iranians. Despite ethnic diversity, he noted, Iran maintains strong national cohesion, making broad public support for change more likely.
Karimi added that recent statements by US President Donald Trump, including public warnings over the fate of detained protesters, were received positively by many Iranians. He said such direct messaging reinforced the belief that the ruling system is no longer untouchable.
Reports also indicate that Washington is seeking to avoid a prolonged conflict while maintaining pressure on Tehran. Meanwhile, some US military personnel have reportedly been advised to leave the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar amid rising regional tensions.
