Chances for a peace deal: Experts discuss Aliyev's visit to Moscow
On October 7, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev paid a visit to the Russian Federation to attend the CIS Heads of State Council meeting. Yury Ushakov, aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin, announced that on October 8, Putin would hold bilateral meetings with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev , ahead of the CIS summit.
Some political commentators speculate about the possibility of signing a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia during this visit. News.Az Analytical Portal reviewed the opinions of Russian and Azerbaijani political analysts to provide clarity on the likelihood of a peace deal between Baku and Yerevan with Russia’s mediation.
Russian political scientist and head of the Institute of Political Studies, Sergey Markov, told News.az that while the success of negotiations within the Armenia-Azerbaijan-Russia triangle is possible, it is not guaranteed:
“The peace treaty is almost 90% agreed upon. Additionally, the conditions for signing a peace agreement have been created since the Karabakh issue has been resolved. The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan was fueled by the Karabakh problem, which is now resolved—albeit by military means rather than political ones. Nevertheless, it’s resolved. Now, there is an opportunity to build a new relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and Russia still plays a significant role in this process, especially since both leaders are familiar with the Russian-speaking education system and come from the Soviet Union era.”
Markov further emphasized the importance of Russia’s role, particularly as it facilitated the signing of the Sochi agreements , which paused the outcomes of the Second Karabakh War and created the political groundwork for peace. He noted, however, that Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan is hindering the peace process:
“The Armenian leadership is delaying the peace treaty by not meeting two of Azerbaijan’s demands. First, Armenia must cease its territorial claims against Azerbaijan by amending its constitution. Second, Armenia needs to agree to dissolve the OSCE Minsk Group on Nagorno-Karabakh, as it is now a defunct political entity, given that the Karabakh issue has been resolved.”
Markov believes that if Armenia agrees to these conditions, the peace agreement could be signed swiftly. However, he pointed out that Pashinyan is complicating matters by seeking closer ties with the West and attempting to weaken Russia’s role as a mediator:
“Pashinyan’s strategy seems to be aimed at distancing Armenia from Russia in exchange for Western support. However, the West, particularly the U.S. and the EU (with France being especially pro-Armenian), cannot act as neutral mediators. While China may present a neutral stance, it is unlikely to get involved in the South Caucasus conflicts. Therefore, Pashinyan’s hopes for substantial Western support have so far been largely unfulfilled.”
Markov also commented on the limited support Armenia has received from the West:
“Pashinyan is disappointed by the West’s minimal support. While anti-Azerbaijani rhetoric from Western countries may temporarily improve his mood, it does nothing to solve Armenia’s socio-economic problems. Pashinyan might eventually sign a peace agreement with Azerbaijan, largely to defy the West, which has not met his expectations. However, it’s more likely that he will continue to hold out, hoping for mediation from France or the EU, rather than agreeing to Russia’s role as the peace broker.”
Baku-based political analyst Anar Aliyev, in an interview with News.az , shared his thoughts on the meetings scheduled during President Aliyev’s visit to Moscow:
“Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to hold bilateral meetings with both President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. One of the key topics on the agenda will be the normalization of relations in the South Caucasus and the potential signing of a peace agreement.”
Aliyev acknowledged the possibility of a peace agreement but emphasized that Azerbaijan would not sign any deal that doesn’t fully align with its national interests:
“While there is speculation about the signing of a peace agreement, Azerbaijan will not agree to anything that doesn’t serve its interests or is incomplete. The principles outlined by President Aliyev regarding the normalization of relations with Armenia are clear. Given Armenia’s lack of serious steps towards fulfilling its commitments, it seems unlikely that any agreement will be signed during this visit. However, discussions and meetings with the Armenian side may still take place.”
Aliyev also noted that as long as the U.S. and France see the current conditions for a peace treaty as unfavorable to their interests, Armenia is unlikely to take meaningful steps towards peace:
“Without approval from the West, it’s unrealistic to expect Armenia to move forward in fulfilling its obligations.”
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