Is Russia distancing itself from Iran with Trump’s victory?
The election of Donald Trump as U.S. president in 2024 has sparked active discussions in Western media about a potential rapprochement between Russia and the U.S., which might weaken Russia-Iran relations. Amid possible shifts in U.S. foreign policy, questions surrounding the future of Moscow-Tehran partnership take on heightened significance. A key question emerges: what lies ahead for Russia-Iran relations if the Trump administration intensifies its pressure on both nations while advancing new foreign policy priorities?
I see no preconditions for a rapprochement between Russia and the U.S. under a Trump administration. We’ve heard statements from Trump himself and from his potential national security advisor, J.D. Ence. There have also been leaks in American media about a so-called "Trump plan" for resolving the Ukraine conflict.All indications suggest that the new administration will exert strong pressure on Russia, imposing unfavorable terms, setting ultimatums, and threatening economic sanctions. If Russia does not agree to these terms, any movement toward hypothetical Russia-U.S. rapprochement is unlikely.
Moreover, recent information about potential candidates for the national security advisor position —possibly including Mike Oates or Marco Rubio—suggests challenging times ahead. These figures are known for their radical policies, and finding common ground with them will be difficult. Therefore, I see no reason to anticipate a thaw in Washington-Moscow relations.
Furthermore, both Oates and Rubio are staunch opponents of Iran. Oates, in particular, has close ties to the pro-Israel lobby in Washington, suggesting a potential deterioration in relations with Tehran. There was a recent article suggesting that Trump might offer Iran a deal. However, until Iran agrees to his terms, he will maintain pressure through sanctions, including in the oil and gas sector.
It remains unclear what exactly Trump might offer Iran. The administration’s demands are evident: abandoning the nuclear program and halting support for allies in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. In return, Trump offers little of substance. Thus, both Iran and Russia will likely face increased pressure, with unfavorable deals and ultimatums imposed on them.
In this environment, I foresee a stronger alignment between Iran and Russia. It’s worth noting that over the summer and early fall, many speculated that Iran might seek closer ties with the West, especially following the election of Masoud Pezeshkian as Iran’s president, signaling a willingness for at least partial normalization with the West.
However, recent actions by Israel, including the targeted killings of Iranian leaders and the initiation of a ground operation against Lebanon , have left Iran with few options. With Trump in office, Tehran’s situation is only expected to worsen.
Thus, Russia and Iran find themselves in a similar position facing the Trump administration, which seems set on imposing unfavorable terms and following a "divide and conquer" strategy. Trump and his team are notably anti-China, which further encourages closer ties among Russia, China, and Iran. China is one of Iran’s primary oil customers, and Trump will likely pressure Beijing to halt these purchases.
Nonetheless, Trump and his team understand the difficulty of confronting Russia, China, and Iran simultaneously, especially given NATO’s internal divisions. Therefore, the administration may attempt to strike a balance—applying pressure just enough to avoid further alignment among these nations.
Time will tell whether Trump manages to find this balance without triggering the opposite effect—deeper unity among U.S. adversaries against Washington.
(If you possess specialized knowledge and wish to contribute, please reach out to us at opinions@news.az).
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