From support to uncertainty: Ukraine faces a changing U.S. policy under Trump

With Donald Trump’s decisive election win, Ukraine faces the potential loss of vital support from its most important ally, the United States. Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022, the U.S. has contributed $108 billion in military, humanitarian, and economic aid to Kyiv.

Trump has repeatedly criticized the scale of U.S. aid to Ukraine , claiming he could end the war within 24 hours, although he has not detailed how he would achieve this. But with Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy track record and his past statements on Ukraine, the question is not just if he could impact the war, but how he would do so — and whether his approach would lead to peace or escalate the conflict. His perceived admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who seeks to control Ukraine, has led many Ukrainians to view Trump with suspicion. Trump has even shifted blame for the war onto Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rather than Putin. This stands in stark contrast to the U.S. stance, which holds Russia responsible for the ongoing war.

Despite all this, Zelenskyy appeared to put aside differences, offering congratulations to Trump and speaking with him by phone. Zelenskyy described the conversation as “excellent” and expressed his support for Trump’s "peace through strength" approach to global diplomacy.

Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that President Putin is not going to congratulate Trump on his election victory. "Putin had no plans for congratulating Trump. I suggest remembering that we are talking about an election that took place in a country that is unfriendly to us and in a country that is involved in the conflict over Ukraine," Peskov stated.

As the war enters its third year, Ukraine faces severe economic and military pressures. Its economy, devastated by the conflict, remains heavily reliant on foreign aid. Meanwhile, Russian forces continue to push forward on the eastern front, bolstered by thousands of North Korean soldiers, according to Ukrainian and U.S. officials. Russia's daily bombardments of Ukrainian cities with drones, missiles, and glide bombs have left the country’s energy infrastructure in ruins, threatening millions of civilians as the harsh winter approaches.

The possibility that Trump could “stop” the Ukraine war is complex, and depends on how one defines “stop.” The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is rooted in deep geopolitical and historical forces. Russia’s view of NATO as a threat and Ukraine’s desire for integration into the West are not issues that can be easily solved by one leader — no matter how powerful — without addressing these underlying dynamics. However, Trump’s approach could have an influence on the course of the war in a few key ways.

Trump has repeatedly suggested that his approach to foreign policy would be to negotiate and “make deals” rather than continue military engagement. In the case of Ukraine, this could mean pushing for a ceasefire or a peace agreement that involves compromises between Ukraine and Russia.



One of the most contentious aspects of Trump’s potential impact on the war would be his stance on continued U.S. military aid to Ukraine. Trump has criticized the amount of money the U.S. has sent to Ukraine, suggesting that American taxpayers should not bear the burden for a foreign conflict. He has also hinted that he would pressure European nations to do more, perhaps threatening to reduce U.S. support unless NATO countries take on a larger share of the financial and military load. Trump’s willingness to reduce U.S. involvement in Ukraine could lead to a shift in how the war plays out, potentially forcing Ukraine to seek a negotiated settlement sooner rather than later, or forcing its allies to take a stronger stance.

Furthermore, Trump’s “America First” approach could further erode the unity of Western nations in supporting Ukraine, as his presidency might lead to a more fragmented approach to dealing with Russia. Trump’s stance on Ukraine would also be heavily influenced by domestic political dynamics. With a large portion of his base supporting him for his focus on national interests and his criticism of “wasteful” foreign interventions, Trump might view any continued military support for Ukraine as politically unfeasible, particularly if American public opinion swings against more involvement in the war.

For this reason, the Biden administration is reportedly working to expedite the remaining $6 billion in security assistance to Ukraine , aiming to send out the last of the weapons and munitions before Trump takes office as the new US president.

In conclusion, as Trump prepares to assume office, Ukraine must brace for an uncertain path ahead, one where its survival could depend on a president whose priorities and approach to international diplomacy have often defied conventional wisdom. The stakes are higher than ever, and the outcome will be felt not just in Ukraine, but across the entire global order.

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