The world order is slipping into the law of the jungle
Editor's note: Russian military-political analyst, expert in the field of strategic security, specialist in the Middle East and Africa Vladimir Bekish. The article expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the view of News.Az.
It is hardly in doubt that global tensions have risen today. And there is no question that one of the main reasons for this escalation is the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine. There is reason to believe that the essence of this cause looks, in fact, like this.
Here we have a country. And this country harbors discontent toward its neighbor. This discontent may lie in territorial disputes; in the statements of leaders of one state about another; or in the sense of dangerous intentions harbored by that neighbor.
This uneasy situation between two neighboring states has existed for many years. Yet both were forced to tolerate one another because of the norms of diplomacy, the frameworks of international politics, and agreements between nations and peoples.
But then, suddenly, a moment arrives when one of these countries, dissatisfied with its neighbor, begins to batter that unwelcome neighbor with all the force it possesses — with everything except nuclear weapons.
Why? Because the stronger state and its leader believe that if you have such a capability, you can and must use it to achieve your goals, regardless of rules, norms, or so-called outdated world orders. And watching this situation, other countries across the globe begin to realize: if you have a strong fist, a club in your hand, and dissatisfaction with your neighbor’s behavior — or if you want to force that neighbor to obey you — then you can. You, too, are allowed to use your club, your fist, and whatever else you have.
And what have we seen against the backdrop of the Russia–Ukraine war in the last year? Israel and Iran, striking at each other with their clubs. America and Iran as well, where one struck the other so hard that it left no doubt about the intent — to force obedience.
We see India and Pakistan, who for many years disliked one another but tolerated their differences, suddenly bombing and shooting across their borders.
We see Thailand and Cambodia bristling, showing each other — with bullets and shells — who is stronger and more determined.
We see Venezuela turning against neighboring Guyana, seeking to take the Essequibo territory, which it considers its own, and openly declaring its readiness to use every means, including military force, to achieve its aims.
In short, the world order has begun to simplify. Relations between countries are increasingly resembling the way mafia and criminal groups have acted, and in some places still act: “I will take from you whatever I need. Because today, I am stronger than you. And if you resist, I will cripple or kill you. So — make your choice.”
What is deeply troubling is this: in order to behave this way, or conversely, to withstand such pressure and not surrender, one needs strength. And it is clear that both Russia and America will push the arms race even harder. But it is not only about these two long-time military “racers.” Many countries in the world are also beginning to build up their arsenals.
Europe is expanding weapons production on an unprecedented scale, including for Ukraine. It is clear that, as always, some will profit from this. But there is a haunting fear that these races will lead once again to the same outcome they almost always have: war. A real war. A world war.
There is another very dangerous trend that adds to the sense of unease. This is the question of nuclear weapons. Specifically, those countries that already possess nuclear weapons do not hide their intention to strengthen and expand their arsenals, broadening the possibilities for their use. But worse still, many countries that do not yet have nuclear weapons are openly declaring their desire and intention to obtain them.
Just a few days ago, Kim Jong-un ordered North Korea’s military and nuclear industries to begin expanding production of enriched uranium for nuclear munitions. There is no doubt that North Korea will succeed. At the same time, it is rapidly creating, testing, and producing new ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin recently visited the city of Sarov — once known as Arzamas-16 — the birthplace of the Soviet and Russian nuclear arsenal. Much of his visit and his communications with the staff of the nuclear institutions there remain classified. But there is no doubt that the orders were to improve, strengthen, and expand Russia’s nuclear stockpile.
We must also add to this the information voiced recently by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Speaking about Belarus’s relations with Russia, Iran, and China, Lukashenko said: “…I will consult with the President of Russia on how we should act jointly, and whether Russia will be interested in our proposals for modernization and the creation of missile production within our union.” These words were spoken at a meeting on missile development in Belarus, convened by Lukashenko, where he summoned the Secretary of the Security Council, the Deputy Prime Minister for the defense industry, the Minister of Defense, and the Chairman of the State Military-Industrial Committee. And it was there that something else was revealed: “…This is important also in connection with my upcoming visit to China and my conversation with President Xi Jinping. Because we began our missile development in close cooperation with China’s military-industrial complex, and we still maintain those contacts,” Lukashenko added.
Shortly afterward, Dmitry Pantus, Chairman of Belarus’s State Military-Industrial Committee, announced that Belarus has the Polonez missile system, with a range of 300 km. It was created jointly with China and later modernized successfully by Belarusian enterprises. And here is the striking part: “…At present, we are considering the possibility of equipping the Polonez with nuclear warheads,” Pantus declared.
This means Belarus — ally of Russia, China, and Iran — may soon become a nuclear power, armed with missiles carrying nuclear warheads capable of striking Europe.
Nor is this the only new development. In Japan, influential military figures recently published a statement demanding that the ban on importing American nuclear weapons into Japan be lifted. These officers and generals insist that Japan must allow American nuclear submarines with nuclear missiles on board to enter Japanese ports — something formally prohibited today. They also argue that nuclear warheads must be deployed on Japanese territory, following the example of Germany, where at least twenty American nuclear bombs are stored.
The signatories further state that the United States should train Japanese pilots to use nuclear weapons, so that they could later employ them in coordination with Washington, using the latest-generation F-35A fighters.
We also must recall the recent words of Rui Matsukawa, a member of Japan’s National Security Council from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party: “…We cannot take U.S. protection of Japan as something automatic. We must always have a Plan B. That means achieving independence in defense capabilities, and then acquiring nuclear weapons.”
I believe that if everything continues as it does now, Japan will inevitably acquire nuclear weapons.
And finally, the most recent news comes from Poland. On August 25, Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz declared that he has not lost hope that Poland itself will acquire nuclear weapons. He said it is entirely realistic for Poland to participate in the American Nuclear Sharing program — the agreement under which the U.S. provides nuclear bombs to NATO allies if necessary. Kosiniak-Kamysz also emphasized that Poles should not lose faith in their own scientists, who could develop Poland’s own nuclear weapons.
There is a strong impression that this trend — the desire to obtain nuclear weapons — will only intensify worldwide. And then, as everyone knows, the gun hanging on the wall will, sooner or later, fire.
(If you possess specialized knowledge and wish to contribute, please reach out to us at opinions@news.az).
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