Thailand’s Shinawatra dynasty faces triple court test
Thailand’s powerful Shinawatra family is bracing for a series of critical court rulings that could unseat suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and return her father, former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, to prison — outcomes that may trigger an early election and deepen political uncertainty.
On Friday, a court will rule on whether Thaksin, 76, insulted the monarchy in a 2015 interview, a charge that carries possible decades-long jail terms. Another decision, due in 18 days, will determine if his 2023 detention in a VIP hospital instead of prison invalidated his abuse-of-power sentence. Both Thaksin and Paetongtarn deny wrongdoing, News.Az reports, citing Reuters.
Paetongtarn, 39, is meanwhile fighting an ethics case tied to a leaked call with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen, made just before a border clash between the two countries. The Constitutional Court will rule on August 29.
The stakes are high for the Pheu Thai-led coalition, which holds only a slim majority and is sliding in the polls. Analysts warn that unfavorable verdicts could weaken the party, hasten elections — likely by mid-2026 or earlier — and threaten stability in Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, already struggling with slow growth, high debt, and investor concerns.
Pheu Thai’s options are limited. Its last remaining candidate for premier, 76-year-old Chaikasem Nitisiri, would need Thaksin’s influence to hold the shaky coalition together. Potential rivals include ex-interior minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who has signaled openness to early elections, and former coup leader Prayuth Chan-ocha, now a royal adviser.
Despite the risks, some analysts believe Thaksin retains support from conservative elites keen to block the progressive opposition. “The conservative camp has chosen Thaksin,” said Olarn Thinbangtieo of Burapha University, predicting Chaikasem could serve briefly before dissolving parliament.
The coming verdicts mark yet another pivotal chapter for the Shinawatras, a dynasty that has survived coups, party bans, and repeated legal challenges — but now faces perhaps its most precarious test yet.
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