Kremlin's new strategy: Abandoning peace and the path to Ukraine's destruction
By Samir Muradov
The conflict in Ukraine, which initially started as a regional crisis, has rapidly evolved into a prolonged war with far-reaching consequences, both for Ukraine and global geopolitics.
Until recently, there were still hopes that both sides could find a way to end the war through peace talks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had expressed a willingness to consider referendums on key issues, which could have served as a starting point for a peace agreement. Amid the ongoing military actions, these signals were viewed as a potential chance to prevent further escalation and move toward stabilization.
However, the "Explanatory Note" points out that recent events, particularly the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region, have shattered these expectations. This move, made at a time when both sides were engaged in unofficial talks about a peace conference, was perceived by Moscow as an act of betrayal by Kyiv. Instead of potential concessions and negotiations, the Kremlin is now fully focused on the annihilation of Ukraine as a sovereign state.
According to sources in the publication, Putin has altered his strategy—abandoning attempts to negotiate with Ukraine and shifting to a more aggressive approach aimed at a military solution to the conflict. In the Kremlin's view, diplomacy has proven ineffective, and Ukraine's recent actions have marked a point of no return.
Russia's shift toward a more hardline strategy didn't happen overnight. A key factor here is the changing stance of the Russian elite. As reported in the "Explanatory Note, " a significant portion of influential figures in the Kremlin who previously supported negotiations have now adopted more radical positions. The political atmosphere within Russia is gradually changing, and those who still back dialogue with Ukraine are finding themselves on the fringes of decision-making. The political climate in the country is becoming increasingly charged, and any hints of reconciliation are seen as weakness or betrayal.
A high-ranking official, who is under sanctions, told the publication that in the current environment, even suggesting negotiations would lead to immediate political isolation. Those who once supported diplomatic efforts are now forced either to reconsider their positions or retreat into the background. This shift indicates that a political consensus is forming in Russia in favor of continuing military action, despite the economic and social costs.
The radicalization of Russia's position also has significant geopolitical implications. Moscow's policy is based on the assumption that the West will eventually tire of supporting Ukraine in the long term. The Kremlin believes that economic pressure on Europe and the U.S., combined with domestic issues such as the energy crisis and inflation, will lead to a decline in support for Kyiv. In the view of Russian strategists, this will leave Ukraine isolated and more vulnerable to Russian pressure.
However, this assumption may be flawed. Western countries, particularly in Europe, see the Ukrainian conflict not only as a regional crisis but also as a global challenge to the foundations of the international order. In response to Russia's actions, NATO countries have been increasing their military support for Ukraine, supplying weapons and providing economic assistance. Continuing the conflict at its current intensity may not weaken the West but, instead, strengthen its resolve to counter Russian aggression.
Additionally, the potential for the conflict to escalate to a nuclear level remains one of the most alarming prospects. Sources in the "Explanatory Note" indicate that Putin might consider using nuclear weapons only in the event of a direct military confrontation with the West. However, the mere fact that this threat exists complicates diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict and adds further risks to international security.
For Ukraine, this new phase of the war presents even more significant challenges. Russia's strategy assumes that Kyiv’s resources will be depleted faster than Moscow’s, allowing the Kremlin to sustain a long-term conflict with minimal political and economic costs. This logic is based on the belief that Western military and economic support for Ukraine is limited and that, sooner or later, Kyiv will be left without the necessary aid.
However, this scenario overlooks the fact that Ukraine, despite all the hardships, remains a united nation, committed to continuing its fight for independence. Military mobilization, support from the West, and the consolidation of society around the idea of resisting Russian aggression have allowed Ukraine to maintain strong resistance. The question now is whether Ukraine can sustain this momentum amid growing pressure and fatigue both within the country and among its international allies.
In conclusion, the analysis shows that Russia is likely aiming to continue military action, betting on the exhaustion of Ukraine and the gradual weakening of its position. At the same time, the prospect of a diplomatic settlement, as recent events have shown, is now in the past. A conflict that could have once been resolved at the negotiation table has now entered a phase of attrition, where both sides are locked in a struggle for survival.
How long this war can continue will largely depend on the resilience of Ukraine’s economy and military resources, as well as how the West responds to further escalation. One thing is clear: Putin's decision to abandon peace talks in favor of a more aggressive course has not only changed the trajectory of the conflict but also its potential consequences for the entire international system.
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