Yerevan sends weapons to Kyiv: A challenge to Russia or playing for the West?
By Tural Heybatov
On Thursday, various media outlets and social networks spread news that initially raised doubts among many due to its strange nature. It was reported that Armenia had started supplying Soviet-era weapons to Ukraine. On August 28, Yerevan signed a contract with the European Commission, under which Armenia pledged to send ammunition for Soviet-made tanks and missiles for air defense systems to Europe, amounting to 210 million euros. The transfer is being carried out through Georgian ports. Moreover, according to sources, in addition to tank ammunition, Yerevan will transfer its existing air defense systems and 152mm artillery to Kyiv.According to Russian media sources, in exchange, Armenia will receive French CAESAR howitzers and more.
The information that Armenia is transferring its Soviet arsenal to Ukraine did not come as a great surprise to the Russian side. Judging by experts' comments, something like this was expected from Yerevan. Experts have no doubt that this action is not driven by a desire to help the Ukrainian army but rather by an intention to provoke Russia. Since the Second Karabakh War, Armenia has continuously worsened relations with Moscow, and the current decision follows that same logic.
Whether Armenia is transferring weapons on its own initiative or at the insistence of Western partners is not clear. However, it is known that the first reports about Armenia supplying weapons to Ukraine appeared back in November 2023. At that time, the Russian Telegram channel "Rybar," which is affiliated with Russian security services and has a large audience, reported that Armenia had transferred around 200 Tochka-U missiles to Ukraine.
According to Russian sources, agreements on this could have been reached during a meeting between the Secretary of the Armenian Security Council, Armen Grigoryan, and the head of the Ukrainian Presidential Administration, Andriy Yermak. The meeting took place in late October last year in Malta during the third forum dedicated to establishing peace in Ukraine. At the meeting, as reported by the official website of the Ukrainian president, Yermak emphasized the "new context" in the relations between the two countries.
It is noteworthy that when rumors about the arms supplies to Ukraine spread last year, Yerevan was quick to deny them. "This information does not correspond to reality. We urge our Armenian media partners not to spread false theses thrown into the media by foreign propaganda sources," the Armenian Ministry of Defense told journalists. However, the Armenian side has not yet denied the recent reports of shipments, which were widely covered by many media outlets the day before.
"The exact number of available launchers and missiles is unknown: according to open sources, there were at least three, but according to our data, several more modernized Tochkas were handed over to the Armenians before the Special Military Operation. All of them, along with a significant stockpile of up to 200 missiles, could end up in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the White House is actively pushing the issue of supplying the Ukrainian Armed Forces with Osa-AK air defense systems, which are in service with the Armenian Armed Forces. Their number, considering losses during the Second Karabakh War, may be around 30-40 units. Given the current course of the Armenian authorities, we do not rule out the possibility that Armenia will give everything it has to Ukraine without much concern for its defense capability," "Rybar" reported.
Indeed, Armenia has little reason to worry about its defense capability, as there is no military threat in the region. What is surprising, however, is why the West, in its efforts to help Ukraine, provided NATO weaponry not to Ukraine but to Armenia, forcing the latter to pass on outdated Soviet-era equipment. This seems odd, as Ukraine, unlike Armenia, is engaged in a real war. Furthermore, experts question whether Western partners will be able to replenish Armenia's arsenal if the transfer of arms continues at this pace and volume.
While Armenian authorities justified their military defeat in 2020 by citing a lack of weapons and ammunition, it is well known that the Armenian Armed Forces' arsenal was never empty. Both Armenian and Russian sides denied this at the time, but in the mid-1990s, Armenia received weapons worth one billion dollars from Russia. This transfer was free of charge. This fact is no longer disputed by the Russian side. A few years ago, the newspaper "Izvestia" reported that Armenia had received additional weapons and ammunition from Russia at least until mid-1996, bypassing existing restrictions. "According to the head of the State Duma Defense Committee, Lev Rokhlin, as stated in April 1997 during a parliamentary session, the value of the transferred assets could have reached one billion dollars," the newspaper writes.
In particular, Armenia received 80 T-72 tanks, several BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles, up to 120 units of rocket and artillery systems, and around 10,000 small arms. Then-Minister for Cooperation with CIS Countries Aman Tuleev, on February 14, 1997, sent letters to Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin, Defense Minister Igor Rodionov, and the Secretaries of the Security and Defense Councils, Ivan Rybkin and Yuri Baturin, demanding an investigation. The information was confirmed. Moreover, it became known that illegal and unauthorized deliveries continued. But that was not all. In April of the same year, at a closed session of the State Duma, the Chairman of the Defense Committee, General Lev Rokhlin, stated that new weapons worth one billion dollars, sometimes even in factory grease, were being sent to Armenia, while officially they were written off as scrap metal.
Today, experts do not rule out that Ukraine is receiving these very weapons, obtained for free and stored for years. However, the question remains — what does the Ukrainian army need them for?
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