Goldman sees Brent above $100 if Hormuz stays shut

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has warned that Brent crude could average above $100 per barrel through 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another month.

In a note issued after the start of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, analysts led by Daan Struyven said the situation remains uncertain, highlighting comments from US Vice President JD Vance that the truce is fragile, News.Az reports, citing Bloomberg.

They added that risks to oil price forecasts remain tilted to the upside.

The oil market continues to focus on the Strait of Hormuz, which has been largely shut since the escalation of conflict following US and Israeli strikes on Iran in February. Although Tehran and Washington indicated that fighting had paused in exchange for reopening the route, details of the agreement remain unclear.

Goldman’s baseline scenario assumes that shipments through the strait will begin to recover this weekend, with exports from the Persian Gulf returning to pre-war levels within about a month. Under this outlook, Brent crude is projected to average $82 per barrel in the third quarter and $80 in the fourth.

However, under a more adverse scenario in which the reopening is delayed by a month, analysts expect Brent to average above $100 per barrel in the second half of the year. A more severe scenario involving prolonged closure and reduced regional output could push prices even higher, with Brent estimated at $120 per barrel in the third quarter and $115 in the fourth.

US President Donald Trump said in a social media post that it had long been agreed the strait would remain open and secure, while warning that military action could resume if the terms were not fully upheld.

Separately, Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization announced designated safe shipping routes for vessels transiting the strait, according to state media. The revised routes are centered around Larak Island, located roughly 30 kilometers off Iran’s coast near Bandar Abbas.

The Strait of Hormuz, bordered by Iran to the north, is a critical link between the Persian Gulf and global markets, handling around a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade under normal conditions.

Brent crude was last trading above $98 per barrel, after dropping 13% on Wednesday following the ceasefire announcement. During the height of the crisis, prices had surged to as much as $119.50.

News.Az 

By Nijat Babayev