Why Bitcoin will rise again
Bitcoin has traded around the $100,000 mark for much of 2025, but structural factors suggest a new rally may be taking shape. With tightening supply, soaring institutional demand, and the maturation of crypto market infrastructure, the world’s largest digital asset appears poised for another major upswing.
The April 2024 halving, which cut block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, reduced new issuance by 50 percent, a move historically linked to long-term price surges. Following previous halvings in 2013, 2017, and 2021, Bitcoin reached new all-time highs within 12–18 months. So far, 2025 is following a similar trajectory.
The approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 has also transformed access for traditional investors. More than 10 physically backed funds launched simultaneously, generating billions in inflows. Analysts say that if ETF inflows sustain even half their early pace, Bitcoin could surpass previous highs, targeting $160,000–$200,000 by year-end. Institutional investors, including pension funds and wealth managers, can now gain compliant, audited exposure, adding depth and stability to demand.
On-chain data supports this bullish outlook: over 45 percent of Bitcoin’s supply has remained untouched for three years, and 30 percent for over five years. This unprecedented illiquidity, combined with corporate accumulation and a surge in wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC, signals strong conviction among long-term holders.
Market infrastructure and payment networks, including the Lightning Network, are maturing rapidly, reducing volatility and enhancing usability. Easing macroeconomic pressures, such as anticipated interest-rate cuts and renewed global liquidity, further strengthen the outlook.
While regulatory tightening could trigger short-term corrections, the broader fundamentals remain robust. Constrained supply, deep institutional participation, and expanding real-world integration suggest Bitcoin’s next major bull cycle is not only possible but imminent.
Azerbaijani MP and economist Vugar Bayramov told News.Az that Bitcoin's rising price is driven by multiple factors, including discussions in several countries about using it alongside the U.S. dollar in international and foreign trade, increasing global demand for virtual currencies, and the impact of U.S. policy on the market.
Photo: Azerbaijani MP, economist Vugar Bayramov
"The forecasts for Bitcoin’s price growth are linked to ongoing discussions in a number of countries about using Bitcoin alongside the dollar in international settlements and trade operations," he said. "Some states are exploring its use as an alternative payment instrument in foreign trade."
Bayramov noted that the number of countries adopting virtual currencies is increasing, including several in the post-Soviet space. "This trend raises demand not only for virtual currencies in general but also for Bitcoin as the first digital currency. As a result, Bitcoin’s price is increasing amid rising demand."
He added that Bitcoin's growth is closely tied to its potential use in foreign trade and the global market impact of U.S. policy. "If, particularly in developing countries, Bitcoin is used in trade transactions alongside the dollar, further price increases could follow. Nevertheless, the U.S. position is decisive, as Washington’s stance on Bitcoin and virtual currencies directly affects price dynamics," he said.
Azerbaijani economist Eldaniz Amirov, however, cautioned that while Bitcoin’s price growth is supported by limited supply and market psychology, its lack of fundamental backing increases the likelihood of a speculative "bubble" that could eventually lead to a correction.
Photo: Azerbaijani economist Eldaniz Amirov
"There are real reasons for Bitcoin’s price rise, but its value is not supported by any physical or economic guarantee, meaning the price is largely driven by psychological factors," Amirov told News.Az. "This factor alone once drove Bitcoin above $100,000. Rising demand amid limited supply also directly impacts the price."
He added: "Cryptocurrencies are among the hardest assets to predict, as they lack real economic value and often exhibit a bubble effect. I believe the bubble forming in this market will burst one day, it's only a matter of time."
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