Aliyev-Pashinyan talks in Kazan: Has the ice finally broken?

By Tural Heybatov

The interaction between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan became one of the highlights of the 16th BRICS Summit held in Kazan. Even before the forum began, analysts were speculating whether the meeting would take place. After Azerbaijan declined a meeting between the speakers of the two countries at the 149th Assembly of the Inter-Parliamentary Union in Switzerland, many concluded that negotiations had been put on hold.

However, events in Kazan proved otherwise. Contrary to expectations, the bilateral meeting between the Azerbaijani President and the Armenian Prime Minister did take place. While the details have not been disclosed, Azerbaijani, Armenian, and Russian media reported that the two sides discussed advancing the bilateral peace agenda , including a peace treaty, delimitation and demarcation of borders, and other issues of mutual interest. It was noted that the foreign ministers were tasked with continuing negotiations on the Peace Agreement and the establishment of interstate relations, aiming for its finalization and signing in the shortest possible timeframe.

This is all that is known at the moment. Most likely, the meeting was more symbolic than intended to yield practical results. Pashinyan needed to receive some encouraging signals, while Aliyev sought to demonstrate that Azerbaijan is not stalling the negotiations. The issue stems from Baku’s stance on the Armenian Constitution, which is perceived by the Armenian side and its supporting powers as a reluctance to sign a peace agreement due to alleged territorial claims. Such assessments are a form of pressure and, to a certain extent, blackmail. However, Baku stands firm, reasonably considering the presence of claims on Azerbaijani territories in Armenia's constitution as a constant threat to regional stability.



At the BRICS Summit, the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia were seated next to each other — likely not by coincidence. The Russian side facilitated the conditions for their communication, and Putin’s plan succeeded. During the "outreach" or BRICS+ meeting , many noted the friendly conversation between the two leaders. Initially, they spoke one-on-one, and later, the foreign ministers joined the discussion. Judging by the footage, the talks were quite emotional, with Azerbaijani President Aliyev at the center of attention.

Telegram channels were abuzz that day, circulating videos capturing the interactions between Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan. Notably, their conversation took place during speeches by other summit participants, and no one interrupted or halted them, despite the attention their discussion drew, diverting focus from the speakers.

When journalists asked Dmitry Peskov, the Russian President's press secretary, whether this affected the general discussion, he responded: "No, it did not. This is a common practice. Heads of state often use multilateral formats for bilateral contacts."

Russian President Vladimir Putin also noted the lively conversation between the Armenian Prime Minister and the Azerbaijani President. After Pashinyan's speech at the BRICS+ plenary session, Putin expressed his satisfaction that the Armenian Prime Minister was able to exchange views with the Azerbaijani President, stating that it "adds value to our event today."

These remarks from the Russian President confirm our assumptions that the Russian side took deliberate steps to act as the organizer of the meeting — something that Western mediators have been unable to arrange. Although no meeting took place at the CIS summit, the plan was successfully implemented on the sidelines of BRICS.

Of course, it was not only the Kremlin’s desire that brought this about. It appears that the Armenian side had something new to convey, beyond the usual rhetoric dictated from outside. It was noticeable that Ilham Aliyev was initially reserved in his reaction to Nikol Pashinyan’s statements, but gradually, the atmosphere began to soften.

It is worth recalling that the previous meeting between Aliyev and Pashinyan, organized on Russian soil, took place in May in Moscow during the meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council. The Azerbaijani President, whose country is not a member of the EAEU, was invited as a special guest. At that time, Putin managed to arrange a meeting, but it occurred in a tense atmosphere, and the parties did not even issue a joint statement despite the preparation of a document on the unblocking of transport communications and a joint statement from the leaders of the three countries, including Russia.

Nonetheless, the fact that the meeting happened offers hope that more points of convergence will be found between the parties. This, in turn, opens up opportunities for concluding a solid and guaranteed peace agreement. The existing issues currently prevent the signing of a genuinely long-term agreement that would not be disrupted by a change of power in Armenia.

News.Az