Trump's high-stakes game: What Ukraine must sacrifice to secure the deal
By Maria Zhigadlo
U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to suspend negotiations on a rare earth metals deal with Ukraine has sparked intense discussions in political circles. This move could significantly impact relations between Washington and Kyiv, as well as the prospects for resolving the conflict with Russia. In an interview with News.Az, Russian political analyst Tatyana Poloskova shared her insights on the reasons behind Trump’s refusal and its potential consequences.
Russian political analyst Tatyana Poloskova
According to Tatyana Poloskova, Trump’s decision was not due to a change in his stance on the deal but was a reaction to the inappropriate behavior of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during their meeting in the Oval Office. “Trump acted like a pragmatic politician and businessman, while Zelensky behaved like a spoiled child accustomed to universal admiration,” Poloskova explained. Zelensky’s attempt to persuade Trump to label Vladimir Putin a dictator, which was not part of the agenda, was seen as a misstep. Realizing the conversation was becoming unconstructive, Trump abruptly ended the meeting and, in effect, asked Zelensky to leave the White House.
Poloskova emphasized that Trump did not intend to abandon the deal entirely. “Trump, being a true businessman, aims to push the deal through, but on much tougher terms,” she stated. Despite the conflict, Zelensky expressed readiness to sign the agreement just a day later but refused to apologize for his conduct. Poloskova is confident that the deal will eventually go through: “I am sure of it,” she asserted.
According to reports from CNN and Bloomberg, one of the main reasons for the suspension of negotiations was Washington’s demand for a ceasefire and the initiation of peace talks with Russia as a condition for the deal. Poloskova confirmed this information: “The U.S. demands a swift ceasefire with Russia from Ukraine... This is precisely one of the conditions for signing the rare earth metals deal,” she noted.
In her view, Trump’s primary goal is to recover the billions of dollars that the Biden administration spent on supporting Ukraine, despite the high levels of corruption in the country. “Trump wants to bring back to the U.S. budget the billions that his predecessor generously ‘gifted’ to the Kyiv regime,” Poloskova explained. To achieve this, Trump intends to negotiate the deal under more stringent conditions.
The potential suspension of U.S. arms supplies and a reduction in intelligence support to Ukraine could significantly weaken Kyiv’s position. Poloskova believes that the consequences of this move will become evident within a few months or even weeks. “Of course, it will weaken Kyiv's position, but it is unlikely to be immediately noticeable,” she commented.
The most concerning issue for Ukraine would be the potential loss of the Patriot air defense systems and guided missiles for MLRS and HIMARS, which cannot be replaced by European stockpiles. According to Poloskova, this would be a severe blow to Ukraine’s defense capabilities.
She also expressed skepticism about claims by Ukrainian experts that a withdrawal of U.S. support could lead to a large-scale partisan movement against Russia. “There are different moods in Ukraine. And the majority also wants peace,” Poloskova noted. In her opinion, this provides a social basis for peace negotiations beyond just Trump’s desires.
According to Tatyana Poloskova, Trump has outlined specific conditions for resuming dialogue with Kyiv, including a ceasefire and the start of negotiations with Moscow. “Zelensky will undoubtedly resume the dialogue,” the analyst asserted. However, she noted that it would be wise for the Ukrainian leader to discuss personal security guarantees with Trump, especially considering that threats to his life come not only from Russia. “But this threat is obvious,” Poloskova added.
Trump's demands focus on achieving concrete steps towards conflict resolution, making the conditions challenging but not impossible to fulfill. Given the internal and external pressure on Zelensky, he may have little choice but to comply.
“Trump wants to bring back to the U.S. budget the billions that his predecessor generously ‘gifted’ to the Kyiv regime,” Poloskova concluded, implying that Zelensky would have to make significant concessions as he has no other viable options.
The situation surrounding the rare earth metals deal demonstrates that Trump seeks to leverage economic agreements to exert pressure on both Ukraine and Russia. Zelensky’s behavior in the Oval Office has only complicated matters further. In the coming weeks, we are likely to witness how this story unfolds. However, it is already clear that Washington is unwilling to continue financing Ukraine without clear conditions and guarantees.
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