İmbat Muğlu: Failure of Iran ceasefire poses major regional risks - INTERVIEW

Interview of News.Az with Turkish security expert İmbat Muğlu.

- How do you assess the current situation around Iran? What are your forecasts regarding further developments?

- The Iran–America war began on 28 February, and yesterday US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire. Although it is currently a two-week truce, it is highly significant from a diplomatic and geopolitical perspective. This is because the war, which is not limited to Iran, the US, and Israel, has turned the Middle East into a true hell.

Thus, the world has once again realised that this ceasefire is far more valuable and reasonable than even the most devastating war. This situation naturally raises concerns in Iran about its future, as Iran is currently seeking a ceasefire through intermediaries. We hope that this ceasefire, achieved with the help of mediators, will lead the parties to sit at the negotiating table, even minimally, in order to end the war.

- What are the risks and advantages of the situation in Iran for Türkiye?

- If the war continues, it will harm not only Iran and the Middle East but also neighbouring countries, including Türkiye, Azerbaijan, and other Turkic states. The situation is critical, because if these two-week peace talks and the ceasefire with Iran fail, it will create significant risks for Türkiye. Türkiye is making great efforts, both as a mediator and at the negotiating table, to bring the warring sides closer and end the conflict.

At the same time, Iran, a country with a thousand-year history and a shared destiny where millions of our compatriots live, is very important for Türkiye. However, it is also a highly risky country for Türkiye. If this war continues, it could mean that millions of Iranians will end up in Türkiye.

Iran is increasingly losing its capacity to withstand this war. As a result, Türkiye will face a new wave of migration. It has not yet fully resolved migration from Syria.

In a potential scenario estimating an inflow of 12–13 million people from the South Caucasus, especially our compatriots, two to three times greater than the current migration from Syria, this would seriously harm Türkiye in terms of social tensions as well as politically, geopolitically, diplomatically, and economically. Therefore, Türkiye is making serious efforts to achieve peace as quickly as possible.

Regarding the Middle East, Iran has carried out many attacks across almost all countries in the region. In this conflict environment, even though some states that were once allies of Iran or had business partnerships with it do not officially show hostility towards Iran, we know that Iran has attacked nearly all Middle Eastern countries where US bases are located. This has harmed both civilians and settlements in those countries.

Similarly, many Iranian-made missiles and drones have been launched towards the territories of Azerbaijan and Türkiye. However, Türkiye and Azerbaijan, maintaining calm and taking into account their friendship, thousand-year neighbourly relations, and ethnic ties, have stayed out of this conflict. Both countries and their presidents, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Ilham Aliyev, have issued diplomatic warnings to Iran.

They have given Iran the necessary response, presenting all required arguments and diplomatic approaches, while also seeking to prevent escalation. If this two-week truce continues, the following reality will apply for Türkiye and Azerbaijan: as Iran’s closest neighbours, they will provide Iran with economic, political, and diplomatic support. They will use all available means to help Iran recover and reach a new level of prosperity. Both brotherly states will also extend a helping hand to the Iranian people.

- How might this tension affect the South Caucasus, especially Azerbaijan?

- In a possible scenario, if this two-week ceasefire drags on and turns into an indefinite war, Türkiye and Azerbaijan will take all necessary precautions, taking regional realities into account. They will use all available arguments to protect their countries. This also means that Türkiye, Azerbaijan, and other members of the Organization of Turkic States, whose shared ideals have always included the idea of a common army and civilisation, are likely to realise this vision, especially under current wartime conditions. This possibility is at the forefront of potential scenarios and may become reality. Azerbaijan and Türkiye would coordinate this jointly.

- How significant a political factor could Iranian Azerbaijanis become in the current situation?

- Iran has made significant efforts to ensure political support from Azerbaijanis for the Iranian state and government during this period. Undoubtedly, the future administration will also remain under the influence and supervision of Azerbaijanis.

This is a major concern for both Türkiye and Azerbaijan. As I said, these peoples, with whom we share kinship ties, are now very actively involved in the Iranian government. These are also potential future scenarios.

It is inevitable that Azerbaijanis, and especially Iranian Azerbaijanis, will play an increasingly important role in the political arena and governance of the country. In short, the entire Middle East is currently engulfed in war, alongside another ongoing conflict, the Russia–Ukraine war.

- Trump has been frequently speaking about the US leaving NATO. How realistic do you consider this scenario?

- The US, especially in the last two or three months, although Trump has loudly raised this issue during the Iran–America conflict process, has in fact long been opposed to NATO. European countries, including Türkiye, are NATO members and have paid a high price for its existence, and have sought serious efforts to keep NATO alive. But unfortunately, Europeans ultimately describe NATO as an “American alliance”.

Because NATO conducts all its activities in accordance with America’s wishes and interests. In this context, when the US raised the issue of the Strait of Hormuz, particularly the possibility of controlling it in the event of a war with Iran, as well as potentially closing the strait to shipping, especially for America and its allies, Trump has repeatedly stated that NATO is nothing without the US and that they would leave NATO if necessary. He has said this many times, but I would like to state clearly, as a soldier.

As a soldier who served for many years in the Turkish Armed Forces and is familiar with NATO’s structure and functioning, I can say that if the US leaves NATO, NATO would become stronger. NATO would defend oppressed peoples. NATO would protect human rights. NATO would not merely be a mercenary force with powerful armies and operations, but would carry out actions benefiting the world and humanity. Therefore, a US withdrawal from NATO would certainly benefit humanity and the entire world.

News.Az