Putin prepares quiet draft amid war losses

Russia is preparing the informational groundwork for a limited, staggered call-up of reservists in 2026 as it seeks to offset mounting battlefield losses in Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

ISW analysts say a series of recent moves by the Kremlin suggest Moscow is positioning itself to resume selective conscription while avoiding the political fallout of a large-scale mobilization similar to the one announced in 2022, News.Az reports, citing foreign media.

On February 18, Russia’s State Duma passed a bill in its first reading that would tighten measures against evading military duty. Analysts believe the legislation could also be used to penalize public criticism of reservist call-ups.

The think tank argues that the Kremlin is attempting to normalize a rolling, limited draft to maintain the size of its occupation forces without formally declaring another partial mobilization, a step that previously triggered a mass exodus of Russians in 2022.

The goal of the expected limited conscription would be to sustain current troop levels rather than significantly expand Russia’s frontline forces.

Analysts trace the groundwork back to at least October 2025, when Russian authorities allowed reservists to be deployed on missions abroad without formally declaring mobilization or martial law. In November, President Vladimir Putin signed a decree enabling military commissariats to conduct conscription year-round. A further decree approved in December authorized compulsory reservist call-ups for military training in 2026.

ISW assesses that the Kremlin is moving toward forced recruitment from a position of growing strain, citing the near exhaustion of Russia’s costly volunteer recruitment model.

Moscow is attempting to balance several competing pressures: avoiding public backlash over mass mobilization, sustaining offensive operations in Ukraine, and preserving labor capacity in the civilian and defense-industrial sectors.

The report also suggests the Kremlin may be increasing pressure in peace negotiations with Ukraine in hopes of achieving its military objectives without resorting to politically risky large-scale mobilization.

Separately, Ukrainian military leadership has warned that Russia could seek to draft more than 400,000 personnel in 2026 and form at least 11 new divisions. Ukrainian officials have also accused Moscow of intensifying forced mobilization in the occupied parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

ISW concludes that four years into the war, the Kremlin faces increasingly difficult manpower choices as the human, economic and social costs of the conflict continue to mount.

News.Az 

By Aysel Mammadzada